GoPro Grand Prix of Sonoma Preview

Hello Internet! It's Guido here with a Scoring Indy race preview. This week, we look ahead to the IndyCar race at Sonoma, and get pumped for the title picture as it takes shape! One note to be aware of: you didn't miss anything, It's been a hectic week at casa di Guido, and I don't have the Milwaukee scores done yet. So, you can expect a mega-post with scores from both races some time in the next week with both sets of scores. But, for now, let's get to the previews:


2013 Sonoma Scores

Finish	Driver	Qual.	Grid	Led	Completed	A.R.S.
1	Power	3	3	16	85	72.52
2	Wilson	7	7	10	85	68.11
3	Franchitti	1	1	17	85	64.75
4	Andretti	11	11	0	85	63.97
5	Pagenaud	10	10	0	85	59.62
6	Hunter-Reay	4	4	6	85	47.01
7	Castroneves	5	5	0	85	48.78
8	Hinchcliffe	9	9	4	85	50.12
9	de Silvestro	23	22	0	85	57.64
10	Bourdais	12	12	0	85	36.44
11	Rahal	8	8	0	85	30.82
12	Vautier	14	14	0	85	38.48
13	Kanaan	16	16	5	85	43.56
14	Viso	15	15	0	85	27.29
15	Dixon	2	2	27	85	35.84
16	Hildebrand	18	18	0	85	29.62
17	Briscoe	22	21	0	85	36.01
18	Davison	21	25	0	85	32.17
19	Carpenter	24	23	0	84	26.42
20	Kimball	6	6	0	83	0.64
21	Saavedra	20	20	0	81	19.59
22	Luhr	25	24	0	81	16.60
23	Sato	13	13	0	67	-0.27
24	Newgarden	17	17	0	56	-1.58
25	Jakes	19	19	0	28	3.95

Predictive Observations

Here are your four drivers to watch ahead of this weekend's race:

- Power -- First, we take a look at His Overlordship: Will Power. My arbitrary favorite driver has been looking in fine form of late, winning at Milwaukee and taking a commanding position in the Verizon IndyCar Series points. Last year, Power took the win in Sonoma after qualifying P3. Now, it was a win marked with controversy, when Scott Dixon was penalized for hitting one of Power's crew members who was (intentionally or not) carrying a tire a little wide. But, at the end of the race, it was Power crossing the line first. If he does it again, he'll be hard to top for his first title, even with double points on offer in Fontana.

- Castroneves -- Now we come to Power's closest competition. Helio's effort at the 2013 trip to wine country was solid but not spectacular. Solid, but not spectacular might be all the Castroneves needs too give himself a puncher's chance in the season finale, which might be all that he needs to secure his first title with a winning performance over those last 500 miles. 

- Rahal -- I admit it. I find Graham Rahal compelling. He probably shows up on more of these "4 to Watch" lists than he needs to. But, as long as we're talking about him, let's talk about him. My usual gripe with Rahal is that he qualifies so poorly that his making up positions on track doesn't help him enough. And, that has been his issue in Sonoma in general. In 2011 and 2012, he started back in P13, which made things hard on him (despite P5 and P8 finishes). Well, in last year's Sonoma race, he flipped the script on himself. He qualified up in P8, but couldn't manage to do anything with it, basically holding station for the first quarter of the race then getting mired back in the pack. Rahal has had a bit of form recently with two good drives in the last three road/street events (Mid-Ohio and Toronto 1). Does it extend to Sonoma?

- Dixon -- Scott Dixon could have won at Sonoma last year. He was locked in a battle with Will Power, which looked to be ending Dixon's way before the penalty. That set up what (at least) I remember as a high-drama finale. This year, Dixon is in the opposite position. This year, he can't win it all, but he can spoil. How will Dixon adjust to the new role? Will he attack with reckless abandon, like Power in 2013? Or, will the Ice Man melt? My money's on two good races from him.

Stay Tuned

That's all the warm-up for now. Be sure to follow me @ScoringIndy on Twitter for all the updates, and the mega-post with scores coming up soon! See you then!

-- Guido

Wisconsin 250 Preview

Hello Internet! It's Guido here with another Scoring Indy race preview. This week we'll be taking a look at the 2013 Milwaukee race, and comb those results for some predictive observations for this time around. Let's get to it!


2013 Milwaukee Scores

Finish	Driver	Qual.	Grid	Led	Completed	A.R.S.
1	Hunter-Reay	4	4	65	250	77.11
2	Castroneves	18	17	0	250	80.08
3	Power	3	3	4	250	59.35
4	Viso	5	5	10	250	60.49
5	Hinchcliffe	2	2	0	250	50.34
6	Dixon	11	11	0	250	55.11
7	Sato	15	15	109	250	77.61
8	Franchitti	17	23	0	250	57.79
9	Wilson	13	13	1	249	45.92
10	Kanaan	7	7	0	249	37.76
11	Newgarden	8	8	0	249	36.26
12	Pagenaud	9	9	0	249	35.18
13	Saavadra	6	6	0	248	27.15
14	Carpenter	21	20	0	248	41.30
15	Briscoe	19	18	0	248	31.82
16	Rahal	23	24	0	247	31.44
17	Kimball	22	21	0	246	28.01
18	Jakes	12	12	0	245	12.00
19	Beatriz	20	19	0	242	18.72
20	Andretti	1	1	61	176	5.59
21	Vautier	10	10	0	173	2.37
22	Bourdais	14	14	0	152	3.81
23	Tagliani	16	16	0	146	0.37
24	de Silvestro	24	22	0	69	1.60

Predictive Observations

- I've liked this "4 Drivers to Watch" idea. I'm going to stick with that.

- Ed Carpenter -- Carpenter makes this list, but not for the reasons you'd expect. As the resident Oval Maestro in the Verizon IndyCar Series, you might presume that I'd be touting Carpenter's chances. Instead, I'm recommending caution with predicting a big day for the #20. Milwaukee might be oval-shaped, but in many ways it drives like a road course. And, the numbers back me up on this. Carpenter only has 2 Top 10 performances in 9 IndyCar races at the Mile. In fact, his best ever finish is only P7. You've been warned.

- Ryan Hunter-Reay -- Andretti Autosport owns track. Well, not physically. But Andretti Sports Marketing does promote the event, and Hunter-Reay has won every race contested at Milwaukee in a DW-12 chassis. Expect no less than a solid performance from RHR.

- Takuma Sato & Graham Rahal -- Here's a two-fer for you, but these two drivers share a similar theme. Sato, as he did many times in '13 (and has in '14) ran very well. Sato, however finished back in P7, despite leading over 43% of the laps run. Rahal, on the other hand, qualified poorly, and never really got into a contending position. You'll remember, however that I leveled a similar criticism Rahal's way before Mid-Ohio, and you saw how that turned out. Let's keep an eye out to see it either driver changes their luck this time around.

- Helio Castroneves -- Finally, we turn our attention to the series championship and to Helio Castroneves. It seems that Castroneves is in the midst of what is quickly becoming a traditional late-season slump. In fact, if the season weren't designed to end by Labor Day this year, we might well call it a September Swoon. This is what makes Milwaukee an interesting race for Helio. Look back up at the score up there. Helio ran well (scoring a race-best 80.08), he also finished P2. Now, did this performance come about because of Castroneves' booming confidnece at that point in the season last year, or did it come because he's good at Milwaukee? We may well find out the answer on Sunday.

Stay Tuned

I might just trot the good old race predictions back out after qualifying this weekend. We'll see how I feel. But, to get those, as well as any and all blog updates and general thoughts, be sure to follow me @ScoringIndy on Twitter. I'll see you after the race!

-- Guido

Mid-Ohio Scores

Hello Internet! Guido here with a Scoring Indy score post. This week, we dive into the scores from the Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio.Be warned ye who enter here. We're venturing into uncharted waters. Let's get to it!


2014 Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio Scores

Finish	Driver	Grid	Led	Completed	A.R.P	Race Score	RSWC Points
1	Dixon	22	45	90	7.68	105.03	10
2	Bourdais	1	38	90	1.79	76.52	6
3	Hinchcliffe	17	2	90	5.77	78.37	8
4	Munoz	4	0	90	4.76	56.43	2
5	Rahal	7	0	90	5.02	57.54	4
6	Power	6	0	90	7.61	49.07	1
7	Kimball	20	0	90	11.23	61.77	5
8	Briscoe	19	0	90	11.08	57.46	3
9	Pagenaud	9	0	90	9.21	42.10
10	Hunter-Reay	5	2	90	9.52	33.28
11	Montoya	11	0	90	10.16	37.64
12	Newgarden	2	3	90	4.84	30.13
13	Conway	12	0	90	12.83	29.04
14	Aleshin	13	0	90	13.13	27.07
15	Wilson	8	0	90	13.63	15.71
16	Hawksworth	18	0	90	16.48	23.52
17	Huertas	10	0	90	10.91	16.80
18	Sato	21	0	89	17.97	19.61
19	Castroneves	15	0	86	19.27	5.67
20	Saavedra	14	0	24	9.25	7.68
21	Kanaan	3	0	0	21.00	3.03
22	Andretti	16	0	0	22.00	1.52

Observations

- Did you note the uncharted waters? There's Scott Dixon up there riding the Scoring Indy Bump (I mentioned him in the preview) all the way to the first-ever score of over 100 since I've been tracking these things (2012). We'll break his drive down below in "A Word on Dixon and Max Scores."

- The Scoring Indy Bump also benefited one Graham Rahal. His bump-ification was perhaps not as great as Dixon's, but a P5 finish with a 57.54 is exactly what Rahal needed to move positively toward next season.

- Now a word about the nature of racing at Mid-Ohio. There's a reason that so many drivers have an Average Running Position so close to their finishing position. That reason is that Mid-Ohio is technical and unforgiving. All of the anomalies and disparities between the two are based on strategy.

A Word on Dixon and Max Scores

Let's get esoteric!

- The way that I've set up this little quantitative system of ours, a driver earns exactly 100 points for winning a race from the pole and leading every lap.

- This means that it is technically possible (although quite difficult) to achieve a Race Score of more than 100 points, as is evident by Dixon's performance above.

- Now, because the set bench mark is not a maximum, and because part of the score calculation is based on positions gained over the course of the race, the maximum score for each event is dependent on the number of entries.

- The maximum score for would therefore be achieved by a car starting last, finishing first, and leading every lap. For a 22 car field, this number is 131.82. For 25, it jumps up to 132.00. And, if a driver were to somehow pull off this feat at the Indy 500, with its 33 car field, that driver would score a whopping 132.32.

- Now, for reference, this is (as I said before) the only score of over 100 that's been achieved since I started tracking Race Scores. There has, however, been a score of exactly 100. That occurred at the 2012 Detroit Grand Prix, and was driven by one Scott Dixon. Anyone have any questions about whether Dixie's an all-timer now?

Hall of Averages

For those of you keeping track at home, here are the average scores for the full-timers, the part timers, and the 20 Car composite, as well as the RSWC Table:

Full Time

Driver	Average Score
Power	59.99
Castroneves	49.66
Dixon	48.35
Kanaan	46.03
Pagenaud	43.67
Hunter-Reay	43.53
Kimball	42.38
Briscoe	41.15
Bourdais	39.02
Montoya	38.37
Wilson	37.64
Hawksworth	34.68
Hinchcliffe	34.09
Andretti	33.59
Munoz	32.74
Rahal	31.03
Aleshin	29.78
Huertas	28.62
Newgarden	27.28
Saavedra	22.96
Sato	20.46

Part Time

Driver	Average Score	Races
Karam	65.51	1
Hildebrand	48.16	1
Carpenter	47.41	4
Tagliani	45.08	1
Villeneuve	43.73	1
Davison	41.47	1
Servia	40.23	4
Conway	31.50	11
Bell	31.26	1
Plowman	25.36	2
Filippi	18.35	4
Mann	14.76	1
Montagny	12.75	1
Lazier	4.15	1

The 20 Car

Driver	Average Score
The 20 Car	35.75

RSWC Table

Driver	Points	Difference
Castroneves	60	--
Power	52	-8
Hunter-Reay	47	-13
Dixon	46	-14
Kimball	39	-21
Montoya	35	-25
Pagenaud	32	-28
Kanaan	31	-29
Bourdais	26	-34
Hinchcliffe	26	-34
Munoz	22	-38
Conway	20	-40
Hawksworth	18	-42
Wilson	17	-43
Rahal	17	-43
Aleshin	16	-44
Carpenter	15	-45
Andretti	14	-46
Newgarden	14	-46
Huertas	12	-48
Briscoe	11	-49
Sato	9	-51
Karam	5	-55
Saavedra	3	-57
Servia	2	-58
Busch	1	-59

Stay Tuned

Next week, we'll preview the ABC Supply Wisconsin 250, my home race; and get geared up for the home stretch of the IndyCar season! Be sure to follow me @ScoringIndy on Twitter for all the updates! See you next week!!

-- Guido