Behind the Curtain on the New Formula

Greetings Internet! I missed you. Did you miss me? I hope so. Anyway, here's the Friday update.

With no immanent IndyCar date (Long Beach is another week away), I have some space to fill. You may remember from my Barber recap that with access to lap charts, I can make some changes to my scoring formula. Here's a brief look at what ScoringIndy is cooking up:

The factors that are considered under the current formula are this:

1) Race Finish
2) Positions Gained/Lost
3) Laps Led
4) Laps Completed
5) Qualifying v. Starting Position

Under the current formula, Race Finish accounts for roughly half the scoring, whereas the other factors are cooked together to create some kind of "In-Race Performance" term that accounts for the other approximate half.

Now that we can add average running position to the mix, we have three terms to our mathematical jamboree:

1) Race Finish
2) Average Running Position
3) In-race Performance

So, the question that we ask ourselves is this: what is the relative weight of each of these terms? How much credit does each receive in the mathematical pressure-cooker that is our formula? We also need to ask ourselves if there is anything that can be done to enhance the In-Race Performance term using the smorgasbord of lap chart data.

Now, I'm not sure what the answers are to these questions. And, that is one of the reasons that I'm looking forward to Formula 1's visit to Shanghai this weekend. The smaller number of cars and laps will make data entry easier for me, and that will allow for more time spent tweaking numbers. At some point next week, I will be posting various scores for the weekend's F1 race using a variety of different formulae, and this will let us all take a look at what we may want to do for a Race Score Formula going forward. I'll also (in the privacy of the ScoringIndy lab) be adding the lap chart data to my IndyCar spreadsheets, and tinkering with formulae there.

Remember, a new formula will be in place for Indy.

I know this week was short. Don't worry, we'll have F1 New Formula Goodness soon!

-- Guido

Looking Back on Bama

Greetings Internet! I hope you all enjoyed yesterday's race-itude as much as I did. Compelling action on track, and the grass is actually green in Alabama. (It gives me a little hope for Wisconsin... Maybe by the time Milwaukee comes around...)

Anyways, I know what you're here for. Here's the gala of data:

Race Finish	Driver	Starting Position	Laps Led	Laps Completed	Race Score
1	Hunter-Reay	1	53	90	79.44
2	Dixon	4	0	90	51.92
3	Castroneves	6	25	90	65.81
4	Kimball	5	3	90	47.82
5	Power	2	9	90	41.54
6	Pagenaud	13	0	90	53.85
7	Andretti	7	0	90	38.46
8	Wilson	8	0	90	36.54
9	Newgarten	22	0	90	59.62
10	Vautier	3	0	90	19.23
11	Tagliani	15	0	90	38.46
12	Viso	16	0	90	36.54
13	Kanaan	19	0	90	38.46
14	Sato	12	0	90	21.15
15	Servia	18	0	90	28.85
16	Bordais	23	0	90	34.62
17	Hildebrand	24	0	90	32.69
18	de Silvestro	14	0	90	9.62
19	Allmendinger	10	0	90	-1.92
20	Saavadra	9	0	90	-7.69
21	Rahal	21	0	90	11.54
22	Carpenter	26	0	89	17.22
23	Jakes	11	0	86	-14.36
24	Beatriz	25	0	65	7.16
25	Franchitti	17	0	42	-3.33
26	Hinchcliffe	25	0	3	1.86

Quick Observations:

- Hunter-Reay (79.44); Castroneves (65.81); and Newgarten (59.62) on the Race Score Podium.

- The only interesting one of those three is Josef Newgarten, who charges from P22 to P9 to grab the third spot. I'd say this is sort of the expectation at Barber, not a ton of passing in the front, so someone working 13 spots up the grid like Newgarten did in his #67 Honda is worth recognizing.

- Lots of Race Scores in the 30s and 40s. You almost expect that with Barber Motorsports Park. As I alluded to earlier, with such a technical course, it's hard to gain or lose lots of positions, which is what makes Newgarten's run amazing.


Twitter Predictions:

- #HIGPA Prediction 1) Kimball is this race's Simona: good car, but won't improve position much, and gets a lower Race Score because of it.

- VERDICT: Mostly on. Kimball starts P5; finishes P4; has a Race Score of 47.82 (outside the top 5). The only difference between his run, and Simona's run last week is that he moved up a spot, whereas she moved down two. And, that kept him in the Race Score World Championship points.

- #HIGPA Prediction 2) Pagenaud and Hinch get big Race Scores. Those teams know what to do and they're farther back than they should be.

- VERDICT: Halfway there. Pagenaud makes me feel smart. Hinch makes me cry. I will say, for the record, that was not Hinchcliffe's fault.

- #HIGPA Prediction 2a) Add Franchitti in pencil to prediction 2. In pencil because I don't trust him to not to ruin his own day again.

- VERDICT: See Hinchcliffe. Franchitti was having a very good drive, but something broke on the #10 Honda, and that ended his day. Thank goodness for Pagenaud. Again, this was a good prediction, and Franchitti didn't ruin his own day, so I feel good about it.

- #HIGPA Prediction 3) A Honda wins, probably Dixon.

- VERDICT: Nope. The Hondas were good, with 6 of the top 10; but I should have known better than to pick Scott Dixon at Barber. He finishes second for the fourth year running. Also, he's a foolproof trivia answer. If anyone asks you "Who finished second at the IndyCar race at Barber in..." you can cut them off before they say the year. The answer is Scott Dixon. Also, Dixon gets quote of the week for suggesting that he go buy a bridesmaid's dress after four straight years in second.

- #HIGPA Prediction 4) Castroneves leaves Alabama with the lead in the Race Score World Championship. (Mostly because of Turbo the snail)

- VERDICT: Nailed it. Fear the Snail.


R.S.W.C. Update

Here are the updated standings in the Race Score World Championship:

Driver	RSWC Points	Points Back
Castroneves	43	0
Dixon	28	-15
Hunter-Reay	25	-18
Newgarten	15	-28
Viso	15	-28
Pagenaud	12	-31
Andretti	12	-31
Kanaan	11	-32
Kimball	8	-35
Power	6	-37
Tagliani	6	-37
Bordais	6	-37
Wilson	2	-41
Carpenter	1	-42

Observations:

- Interesting that the Top 3 in the RSWC are the Top 3 in IndyCar series points (in the same order, no less).

- As I said before, fear the snail.

-  Drivers in the top half of the IndyCar standings that don't have any points in the RSWC: Simona de Silvestro and Takuma Sato. They won't stay off this list for long.

- Ed Carpenter will finish in the Top 10 for the RSWC. I'm sticking by it. But, I don't know that E.J. Viso will.


Announcement:

In my pokings around on the little corner of the internet devoted to open-wheel racing, I've discovered that MoreFrontWing.com (shameless and unsolicited plug for a great IndyCar site) has lap charts for IndyCar events. This will allow me to incorporate some other things into my Race Score formula. Most notably, it lets me play with average running position.

This blessing, however, is also a curse. You see, computing average running position from just the data that I have means that I have to enter lap-by-lap data into a spreadsheet. I'm willing to do this, but it's time consuming. This means that I'm not going to have a new formula done immediately, due to the requirements of needing to test it to make sure it does what I want it to do: generate accurate and thought-provoking insights about drivers' performance in races.

Therefore, the announcement is this: starting with the 2013 Indy 500, Scoring Indy will be using a formula that accounts for average running position (as well as the things, for which the current formula accounts). I need all the time up to Indy to get the formula right.

Stay tuned to the blog and @ScoringIndy on Twitter for updates on the new formula. We might try out some different stuff using the F1 results from China. That could be a fun project for next week...

That's all I've got for now. I won't be gone long.

-- Guido

A Trip Back to the Barber Shop

Welcome back, internet! (Or, should I be welcoming myself back out of my Holy Week cloister?) In any event, I returneth, and just in time for Barber, too. So, to get us all prepared for the Elevation-Change Circus that is Round Two of the IndyCar schedule, here is last year's hurley-burley of data:

Race Finish	Driver	Starting Position	Laps Led	Laps Completed	Race Score
1	Power	9	22	90	77.61
2	Dixon	3	38	90	71.11
3	Castroneves	1	28	90	57.86
4	Rahal	8	1	90	52.48
5	Pagenaud	10	0	90	51.92
6	Hinchcliffe	2	1	90	33.25
7	Conway	4	0	90	32.69
8	Barrichello	14	0	90	48.08
9	Bourdais	17	0	90	50.00
10	Franchitti	18	0	90	48.08
11	Andretti	13	0	90	34.62
12	Hunter-Reay	11	0	90	26.92
13	Servia	26	0	90	51.92
14	Briscoe	12	0	90	21.15
15	Hildebrand	5	0	90	3.85
16	Jakes	20	0	90	28.85
17	Newgarten	15	0	90	15.38
18	Viso	7	0	89	-3.61
19	Wilson	19	0	89	15.38
20	de Silvestro	21	0	89	15.36
21	Kanaan	6	0	89	-16.99
22	Carpenter	23	0	88	11.50
23	Legge	24	0	85	9.51
24	Sato	16	0	52	-3.12
25	Kimball	22	0	45	0.96
26	Tagliani	25	0	0	1.92

So, here are my thoughts:

- It seems that you can pass at Barber now. (Compare last year with 3 drivers leading 20+ laps to 2011, when Will Power lead every lap from the pole: a 100 point Race Score, and you quickly see my point.) So, we could see some people putting up big numbers by coming up through the field. See Viso and Dixon in St. Pete, and Power last year here at Barber.

- Is it possible for Will Power to run for Mayor of Leeds, Alabama? He has two of the three poles and two of the three wins. Expect him to have a car to be right up there again this weekend. I'd go so far as to say that he should win, provided he doesn't get run over again. Don't text and drive! (Yes, I know I'm going way out on a limb here...)

- Sam Schmidt's car looked good last year at Barber with Pagenaud. Vautier looked very good in his first IndyCar Series race. At least one of them ought to be quite competitive this weekend.

- KV also looked good last year in Alabama and two weeks ago in Florida. TK and Simona are in a good position to make real noise at the Alabama GP.

- I'm excited to spend the weekend saying the word "Allmendinger."

- Finally, stay tuned to @ScoringIndy on Twitter. After qualifying, I'll be posting some race predictions, as well as predictions specific to the Race Score World Championship.

That's all I've got for today, I'll be tweeting this weekend, and blogging on Sunday night or Monday morning. Let's go racing, Alabama!

-- Guido

IndyCar St. Pete GP

That was a satisfying race. A very satisfying race. How satisfying was it? And, for whom? What great questions, Internet. Let's look at the Bacchanalia of data:

Race Finish	Driver	Starting Position	Laps Led	Laps Completed	Race Score
1	Hinchcliffe	4	26	110	67.82
2	Castroneves	5	42	110	73.09
3	Andretti	7	0	110	54.00
4	Kanaan	11	0	110	58.00
5	Dixon	20	0	110	72.00
6	de Silvestro	3	0	110	34.00
7	Viso	22	0	110	68.00
8	Sato	2	0	110	24.00
9	Wilson	13	0	110	42.00
10	Tagliani	17	0	110	46.00
11	Bourdais	21	0	110	50.00
12	Kimball	14	0	110	32.00
13	Rahal	15	0	110	30.00
14	Carpenter	23	0	110	42.00
15	Jakes	18	0	110	28.00
16	Power	1	26	107	2.31
17	Servia	12	16	104	15.42
18	Hunter-Reay	8	0	79	1.64
19	Hildebrand	24	0	78	21.09
20	Saavedra	9	0	72	-2.40
21	Vautier	6	0	69	-8.82
22	Beatriz	25	0	55	11.00
23	Newgarten	16	0	50	-0.36
24	Pagenaud	19	0	26	1.64
25	Franchitti	10	0	18	-2.91

As always (with IndyCar races) my numbers come from Indycar.com/stats.

So, observations on the scoring as well as general observations (this week, at least, done in award form):

- Race Score Podium 1) Castroneves 73.09; 2) Dixon 72.00; 3) Viso 68.00

- Now, that is a controversial three-spot! I don't disagree that the best and second best drives go to Helio and Dixon, but the algorithm and I might just have words about Viso edging Hinch. But, this is meant to spark thought. What do you think? Is moving up from P22 to P7 better than winning from the second row, while leading 26 laps? Let's ponder that.

- The "Flashes of Brilliance" Award for driver who impressed me, but whose Race Score fails to do so: Tristian Vautier. The IndyCar Rookie of the Year (Number 1 in a field of 1) looked VERY VERY good before retiring the car with mechanical problems. Keep your eyes on this guy. I don't think he'll finish in negative numbers very often.

- The "I Was Right" Award for thing I said that somehow wound up being true: I said Bourdais would look much better at St. Pete this year. (Not really a stretch, I know.) But, without the Lotus, and with an entire race completed, Bourdais jumped up from P21 to P11 and finished with a Race Score of 50.00.

- The "Robbed by Qualifying" Award goes to Simona de Silvestro. A good run for de Silvestro, holding on to P3 for a long period toward the end of the race before losing her tires in a nasty nasty way (trivia: What goes off faster, those Street Circuit Reds or the Pirelli "Hards" that were at Sepang for the F1 race?) at the end. Simona's finish in sixth spot is impressive, but her Race Score numbers would have been even better if she hadn't started inside the second row. Instead, she has a respectable Race Score of 34.00 and winds up just out of the points in...

The Race Score World Championship

R.S. Standings	Driver	Race Score	RSWC Points
1	Castroneves	73.09	25
2	Dixon	72.00	18
3	Viso	68.00	15
4	Hinchcliffe	67.82	12
5	Kanaan	58.00	10
6	Andretti	54.00	8
7	Bourdais	50.00	6
8	Tagliani	46.00	4
9	Wilson	42.00	2
10	Carpenter	42.00	1

- Yes, that's right Ed Carpenter. Ed gets 1 RSWC point (Wilson wins the tiebreaker for finishing higher). I hereby go on the record saying that Carpenter finishes in top 10 in the RSWC this year.

- Remember what I said about Bourdais? I feel super-smart now.

- Tagliani picks up 4 points after not being seen much on television. Really nice livery, though! Really nice.

Well, that's that I've got for now. I might come back with an F1 Bonus Blog later this week, but don't be surprised if I don't. It's Holy Week. I'm busy. See you in Barber! (I'll surely blog before Barber, but that sounded good.)

-- Guido

The Ghost of St. Pete Past

Hello Internet! This week we look back at the IndyCar race at St. Petersburg last year, by breaking down the Race Scores from that race. We'll also look ahead to this week's season opener in St. Pete by looking at the differences between this year's race and last. Plus, I'll be unveiling the way that Scoring Indy will be quantifying season-long performance for the 2013 IndyCar season.

St. Pete 2012

I don't think I'll ever forget the picture of Helio slapping the "Dan Wheldon Way" sign. It went a long way toward healing for me. But, that's a lot of feelings, and this blog is about numbers, data, and performance. So, here is the carnival of data from last year's St. Pete Grand Prix:

Race Finish	Driver	Starting Position	Laps Led	Laps Completed	Race Score
1	Castroneves	5	28	100	71.69
2	Dixon	6	37	100	74.27
3	Hunter-Reay	3	0	100	46.15
4	Hinchcliffe	4	0	100	44.23
5	Briscoe	2	9	100	41.04
6	Pagenaud	16	0	100	59.62
7	Power	1	11	100	32.42
8	Viso	12	0	100	44.23
9	Kimball	22	0	100	59.62
10	Wilson	15	0	100	42.31
11	Newgarten	19	0	100	46.15
12	Rahal	10	0	100	25.00
13	Franchitti	9	1	100	19.73
14	Andretti	7	0	99	11.67
15	Tagliani	17	0	99	26.88
16	Servia	23	0	99	34.48
17	Barichello	13	0	98	11.69
18	Carpenter	24	0	98	28.62
19	Hildebrand	18	3	96	14.98
20	Conway	11	0	75	0.48
21	Bourdais	26	0	73	18.56
22	Sato	14	11	73	2.40
23	Legge	25	0	59	9.96
24	de Silvestro	21	0	22	4.50
25	Kanaan	8	0	21	-3.02
26	Jakes	20	0	19	-0.27

Observations from last year's race:

- The Race Score Podium: 1) Dixon: 74.27; 2) Castroneves: 71.69; 3) Pagenaud 59.62

- Comments about those three drives. Dixon winds up on the first step of our podium, despite finishing last year's season opener in second. This is explained in the algorithm by his having gained the same number of positions as Helio and then leading nine more laps. Castroneves finishes just about two and a half points behind Dixon, and the discrepancy in laps led seems to be more of  a quirk of strategy than anything. Pagenaud started off his Rookie of the Year campaign by jumping up from P16 to P6, and snagging the third spot without even leading a lap.

- A quick comment about this system as a whole. Last year's St. Pete race is what made me keep at this little experiment of mine, when I was compiling all the data from last year's IndyCar series. The thought that the guy that finished second might have had a better drive than the guy who finished first and the idea that P6 actually performed better than the drivers in P3-P5 is just fascinating to me.

St. Pete 2013

Here's what will make things at this year's St. Pete GP slightly different:

- There are more laps (110 not 100), so each lap led will count for less.

- There is one less entry, so each finishing position and position gained or loss will count for more.

- There are no more Lotus engines, so a fifth of the field no longer has anchors on their cars. Expect a better day specifically for drivers whose names rhyme with Bebastien Soudais.

Race Score World Championship

So, here's what I'm going to be doing here at Scoring Indy for this year's IndyCar season. I'm going to track performance by drivers across the season with a system I'm calling the Race Score World Championship. Basically, I'm taking the top 10 Race Scores (Aggregate Race Scores for weeks with grid penalties) and awarding them Formula 1 style points. I'm doing this because I can, and also I want to do it because (looking at last year's Race Scores) I find that between 8-12 drivers have "good" races on any given week. So, look at the end of each IndyCar update for standings in the RSWC.

That's all I've got for now. Expect next week to be spotty, as it is Holy Week, and I won't have too much time for racing. Hopefully, I'll get St. Pete scores up as soon as I see a box score.

Let's go racing,

--Guido

PS The numbers in the above "carnival of data" come from indycar.com/stats