Hello Wisconsin!

Hello Internet! This Saturday, I will wake up as early as possible and hit the road, heading east toward Milwaukee. Then, sadly, I will drive through/past Milwaukee and to Michigan, because we're going to a wedding on Sunday. I am a little disappointed that I won't be at the Mile. I'm even more disappointed that I won't be able to follow the race as closely as I'd normally like to. But, I love me a wedding, so off to Michigan with me!


Milwaukee 2012

Here's how last year's Milwaukee race was scored:

Race Finish	Driver	Qualifying	Grid	Laps Led	Completed	A.R.S.
1	Hunter-Reay	3	2	84	225	71.67
2	Kanaan	10	6	0	225	60.00
3	Hinchcliffe	13	8	1	225	61.22
4	Servia	22	20	0	225	78.00
5	Viso	8	5	27	225	51.00
6	Castroneves	6	4	50	225	49.11
7	Tagliani	18	13	0	225	55.00
8	Carpenter	23	22	0	225	65.00
9	Rahal	17	11	0	225	44.00
10	Barrichello	5	3	0	225	20.00
11	Dixon	11	21	0	225	40.00
12	Power	4	14	0	225	22.00
13	Pagenaud	12	7	0	224	19.03
14	Briscoe	9	19	0	224	24.00
15	Andretti	15	9	0	224	16.03
16	Conway	25	25	0	224	37.92
17	Kimball	21	18	0	224	22.98
18	Legge	19	15	0	220	14.04
19	Franchitti	1	1	63	193	-4.87
20	Sato	14	24	0	107	11.05
21	Jakes	20	16	0	106	7.17
22	Hildebrand	16	10	0	105	-0.40
23	Wilson	2	12	0	93	-7.23
24	de Silvestro	24	23	0	62	3.72
25	Newgarden	7	17	0	48	-3.55

- Here's the obligatory disclaimer: last year's scores only account for race finish, gaining positions, leading, and completing laps. This year's scores also account for average running position, so our recap will look different than this preview. (It will also be WAY more work, done whining).

- Here is the list of things that I like from last year's score-sheet: almost half the field finishing on the lead lap; Carpenter and Tagliani (even Conway, destroyer of worlds but not ovals) gaining mondo-positions; the name Barichello; the car finishing P4 scoring P1; that my spell-check knows how to spell Andretti

- Here is the list of things that I don't like: most of the drivers that I'd say that I "cheer" for did not finish 200 laps; yeah, that's about it: I liked Milwaukee last year.

Looking Ahead

This year, Milwaukee jumps up to 250 laps, which will make anything that I could call "free time" next week disappear. But, other than that (and the fact that I said I was done whining earlier) I'm excited for more racing. More racing is good. So, here are the questions that I'm pondering as we anticipate this weekend:

- How will Briscoe's second outing in the #4 National Guard car go?

- Am I wrong to have a good feeling about Marco Andretti this week?

- A Penske won last week, will a Ganassi win this week? (It's not like Dixon, Franchitti, or Kimball have had bad years...)

- Will the race turn out to be more F1-ish or NASCAR-ish? (for definitions see yesterday's post)

Stay Tuned

I'm looking forward to the racing this weekend. I'm hoping to catch as much as possible, hopefully qualifying tonight at minimum. That means Twitter predictions are likely going up tonight. Follow @ScoringIndy on Twitter to see my predictions flounder on an oval again this week.

See you tonight on Twitter for predictions and next week here for the recap.

-- Guido

IndyCar Does an F1 Impression (in Texas, no less)

Hello Internet! I've often been told that I have a big mouth. I say LOTS of things. Now, luckily for me, I say most of them out loud in my talking-voice so that I have some contact with the people, with whom I am communicating. When I put things online, I tend to be measured, thoughtful, and careful. That's why I'm not much of a Twitter-hound... Now, sometimes I spout my virtual mouth off. I believe that I called Green-White-Checkered finishes "disgusting and artificial." Anyway, point is that I'm a talker, which isn't necessarily a bad thing for a preacher (or a blogger) to be.

Now, I tell you this so that I can make a humblebrag (which is also a snarkbrag) about how very proud of myself I am that I DIDN'T open my mouth (virtual or physical) prior to the Firestone 550 at Texas Motor Speedway. You see, I have a lot of Facebook friends. About two of them watch IndyCar. Way more than two of them watch NASCAR. I had an idea about the middle of last week that I should put a message on Facebook, asking my friends, who watch NASCAR, to tune in for the Texas race on Saturday. Boy, am I glad that I didn't. Now, I still have hope that I can make open-wheel fans out of them at some point.

The fact of the matter is that I expected a NASCAR-ish race at Texas (by NASCAR-ish I mean these things: 1) Lots of cars on the lead lap 2) Passes for the lead 3) Drafting for position. By these criteria, the Indy 500, for example, was NASCAR-ish). 

Instead we got an F1-ish race (F1-ish means, to me, 1) Tire or tyre management is crucial 2) The winner is decided mostly by pit stops 3) People, lots of people, get lapped).

Let me be clear: THIS IS NOT AN INHERENTLY BAD THING. It is, simply, a thing. I ENJOYED Texas. But, in fairness, I also enjoy F1. Also, in fairness, I enjoy scoreless ties in soccer (provided they're well played). As a youth, I loved pitchers' duels, while my friends watched the McGuire/Sosa home run battles.  In summation, I'm glad I watched the Texas race. I loved it. I realize that this is not everyone's cup of tea, so I'm glad I kept my trap shut and didn't tell my NASCAR-loving friends to watch.

Onward! To Data!


Firestone 550 Scores

Here's how we scored the race in Texas:

Driver	Qualifying	Grid	Laps Led	Completed	A.R.S.	RSWC Points
Castroneves	6	6	132	228	91.31	25
Hunter-Reay	3	3	35	228	67.71	15
Kanaan	15	13	0	228	70.50	18
Carpenter	9	9	0	228	61.48	12
Andretti	2	2	57	228	59.70	10
Franchitti	4	4	0	227	45.92	4
Power	1	1	4	227	44.68	1
Newgarden	7	7	0	227	44.94	2
Hinchcliffe	13	12	0	227	47.02	6
Viso	5	5	0	227	36.82
Sato	23	21	0	227	54.11	8
Jakes	10	10	0	227	36.82
Pagenaud	14	23	0	226	34.82
Saavedra	20	18	0	226	33.31
Wilson	22	20	0	226	43.34
de Silvestro	12	22	0	226	26.31
Kimball	8	8	0	226	13.97
Vautier	24	24	0	225	25.63
Servia	18	16	0	225	15.92
Bourdais	17	15	0	224	11.98
Rahal	19	17	0	223	6.23
Tagliani	16	14	0	223	1.70
Dixon	11	11	0	61	3.77
Mann	21	19	0	2	1.36

Observations

Here are my observations (apart from that opening editorial) about the race:

- My three "drivers to watch" from my preview post (Jakes, Newgarden, and Carpenter) all performed admirably. Jakes had an average running position of 9.43 and was still least impressive. Newgarden stayed the course, starting P7 and finishing P8, but ran up high in stints (due to good tire work). Carpenter reminded me why I said that he would be Top 10 in the RSWC by bagging 12 big points.

- My three "drivers who can't get a break" from my preview (Bourdais, Tagliani, Saavedra) continued to not catch a break. None of them ran particularly well: all in the bottom half, as far as Aggregate Race Scores go.

- I continue to be impressed with Marco Andretti's season.

- I'm less and less sure what to make of Vautier and Bourdais. I'm confused about Vautier because he looked so dang good on the first two road courses this year, but hasn't shown me much since Barber. I'm confused about Bourdais because he has tons of race wins, but I've never seen him look like he was contending. Is this my fault for missing the '04-'07 CART (or whatever it was called then) seasons? Or, is Dragon Racing that bad?

Prediction Review

Time to do this again...

- #Firestone550 Prediction 1) The race will look lifted from 2011, with Power and Franchitti running Top 5 as long as they're running.

- VERDICT - Half right. Power's A.R.P was 5.19, but Dario only managed 8.87. 0.5 for 1.

- #Firestone550 Prediction 2) Simona has the best finish of anyone in the last 3 rows.

- VERDICT - Nope. To review, the last three rows consisted of: Vautier, Pagenaud, de Silvestro, Sato, Wilson, and Mann. The best finish went to Sato, who also had the best Aggregate Race Score of the bunch. 0.5 for 2.

- #Firestone550 Prediction 3) I will feel yet even more validated in my Honda Boost Theory.

- VERDICT - I give this one an incomplete. The Hondas certainly qualified better. Three Hondas scored RSWC points. Several Hondas moved up in the field. But, this is an incomplete because of two things. 1) No Hondas finished on the lead lap. 2) The race was more about tires than it was about engines. We'll say half a point for the incomplete: 1 for 3.

- #Firestone550 Prediction 4) Marco Andretti opens up a lead of 10 or more in the Race Score World Championship.

- VERDICT - Absolutely not. I felt good about this early in the race, but superb pit strategy and tire management by Helio Castroneves, means that Helio actually opens up the 10+ point lead. 1 for 4. (I take back all the things I've ever mumbled about an even oval/twisty split...)

Speaking of RSWC points...

Race Score World Championship

Here's an updated snapshot of the RSWC:

Driver	RCWC Points	Points Back
Castroneves	88	0
Hunter-Reay	76	-12
Andretti	73	-15
Pagenaud	60	-28
Kanaan	59	-29
Dixon	58	-30
Sato	58	-30
Conway	43	-45
Newgarden	43	-45
Wison	41	-47
Franchitti	31	-57
Kimball	28	-60
Hinchcliffe	26	-62
Viso	15	-73
Rahal	13	-75
Carpenter	13	-75
Munoz	12	-76
Servia	12	-76
Power	11	-77
Bourdais	8	-80
Jakes	8	-80
Tagliani	7	-81
de Silvestro	6	-82
Hildebrand	4	-84
Allmendinger	4	-84
Briscoe	1	-87

I'll probably have some witty explanations and observations here after Milwaukee (since that's sort of a half-way point). But, for now, enjoy that Mike Conway remains a destroyer of worlds, with more RSWC points than Franchitti and Power combined. Take that 2007-2011.

Stay Tuned

Same time tomorrow, friends! At that time, we'll preview this weekend's race at the Historic Milwaukee Mile in the beautiful state of Wisconsin! There will also be Twitter predictions coming up after qualifying, so keep your screens locked on @ScoringIndy on Twitter!

Until approximately 24 hours from now!

-- Guido

P.S. Hoff and I are hopefully working on something a little fun. That is if Hoff can quit watching hockey long enough to write...

Everything's Bigger in Texas (Especially the Data Entry)

Hello Internet! I love this stretch of the IndyCar season as a fan. Races every week. Ovals. Network Television (that mattered more before this year). IndyCar in Wisconsin (even if I won't be in Wisconsin at the same time...) Point is, I love it. So let's get down to business!


Texas 2012

Here's the Scoring Indy recap of last year's race at Texas Motor Speedway:

Race Finish	Driver	Qualifying	Grid	Laps Led	Laps Completed	A.R.S.
1	Wilson	19	17	11	228	86.41
2	Rahal	3	3	27	228	55.92
3	Briscoe	12	10	5	228	63.10
4	Hinchcliffe	6	6	8	228	49.75
5	Hildebrand	24	23	0	228	79.00
6	Pagenaud	11	9	0	228	48.00
7	Castroneves	17	15	0	227	55.92
8	Power	5	5	24	227	35.27
9	Tagliani	1	1	20	227	22.44
10	Jakes	21	21	0	227	53.90
11	Kanaan	7	7	0	227	22.04
12	Carpenter	20	19	0	227	42.93
13	Newgarden	25	25	0	226	49.79
14	Franchitti	2	2	0	225	0.32
15	Legge	22	22	0	224	35.75
16	Conway	8	18	0	224	14.11
17	Andretti	9	8	0	222	1.45
18	Dixon	4	4	133	173	16.89
19	Viso	16	14	0	129	9.47
20	Servia	13	11	0	89	5.75
21	Hunter-Reay	15	13	0	66	5.95
22	Sato	10	20	0	63	4.13
23	Kimball	18	16	0	29	4.47
24	Barrichello	14	12	0	0	4.00
25	de Silvestro	23	24	0	0	2.00

Here are some things to remember about this recap:

- Last year's scores aren't calculated using the same formula that we use now. Now, we account for average running position.

- Last year's race was an attrition-fest, and I'm not saying that like it's a bad thing, but you'll see that only 6 cars went the full race distance.

- Power got penalized for blocking Kanaan, or they both had a chance to finish much higher.

But, looking at last year's scores can remind us of a couple of things as we approach this year's Firestone 550.

- Firstly, it reminds me that there are a metric tonne of laps at Texas. (Looks like I'll be doing data entry during the Canadian GP...)

- Second it reminds us that Eddie Gossage didn't pull "Wild Asphalt Circus" out of thin air. You can make up mega-positions at TMS (see Wilson, Helio, Hildebrand). You can have the car to beat, and lose it because of the lower down-force (see Dixon, Rahal).

- Thirdly, it gives us some quick clues of drivers to watch. I have my eyes on three, who were mid-pack last year, but showed upward mobility (and the chance to grab some RSWC points...): Newgarden, Carpenter, and Jakes.

That, for which I am Watching

Sorry, couldn't bring myself to write "what I'm watching for." I know it's not technically wrong, but putting a concluding preposition in big type like that makes my skin crawl.

So, I'm watching for these things:

- How will the three drivers I mentioned above (Jakesy, Ed, and Josef) do?

- How will the Hondas qualify in the absence of increased boost?

- How will the Hondas perform if they don't all start buried?

- Will a Penske or Ganassi win?

- Will we see another first-time winner?

- Will any of the following drivers finally catch a break: Tagliani, Bourdais, Savaadra?

- Will TK allow me to break out my "Fear the Snail" line again?

Time, and Texas, will tell.

See you Saturday morning for Twitter predictions. Stay tuned to @ScoringIndy on Twitter to see if I continue to make a fool of myself on ovals.

-- Guido

Detroit GP -- Race Two Recap

Hello Internet! Here's my unsolicited opinion on double-headers: It works. Race One: good (I applaud the modifications to the circuit). Race Two: good once everyone stayed off the wall. So, that's one and a half good races out of two. I'll take that all day. So, let's look at how we scored Race Two (Race One scores can be found here)


Race Two

Race Finish	Driver	Grid	Laps Led	Completed	Race Score	RSWC Points
1	Pagenaud	6	18	70	77.37	25
2	Jakes	2	4	70	60.27	8
3	Conway	1	31	70	73.64	18
4	Dixon	7	0	70	61.47	10
5	Franchitti	16	0	70	68.21	15
6	Andretti	14	0	70	58.95	6
7	Kimball	18	3	70	64.86	12
8	Castroneves	9	0	70	46.51
9	Rahal	15	0	70	49.79	1
10	Saavedra	11	0	70	41.92
11	Bourdais	22	0	70	52.55	2
12	Kanaan	19	10	70	55.39	4
13	Briscoe	13	0	69	32.74
14	Vautier	20	1	69	44.03
15	Carpenter	23	0	66	36.21
16	Newgarden	24	0	64	32.11
17	Viso	5	0	61	10.93
18	Hunter-Reay	4	0	59	7.16
19	Hinchcliffe	10	0	57	11.95
20	Power	3	3	53	6.40
21	Tagliani	25	0	27	12.00
22	Wilson	8	0	27	6.93
23	Sato	21	0	23	7.43
24	de Silvestro	17	0	8	3.22
25	Allmendinger	12	0	0	1.33

So, here are my observations from Race Two:

- TK had a good drive, and it could have been even better. He was running up front for a good while there, and after starting back P19 on the grid, just surviving was good enough to get him a good score, but it could have been even better if it weren't for a late pit stop...

- Dario Franchitti quietly had a good weekend. Qualified up front for Race One. Finished sixth. Didn't qualify as well for Sunday, but still finished P5, while stretching his fuel. Bagging 21 RSWC Points is pretty good too.

- If any owner has a driver out, and if the weekend that driver is out happens not to be an oval (or triangle, I'm looking at you Pocono), that owner should hire Mike Conway to fill in. If an owner can fund a partial season next year for just twisties (or wants to do a ride-share) that owner should hire Mike Conway to drive those twisties. Mike Conway, in short is a destroyer of worlds, as long as by worlds we mean road/street courses.

- Speaking of destroying worlds. Don't make Will Power mad. No seriously, Sebastien Bourdais, if you read my blog, don't make Will Power mad.

Race Score World Championship

Here's the update on the RSWC:

Driver	RCWC Points	Points Back
Castroneves	63	0
Andretti	63	0
Hunter-Reay	61	-2
Pagenaud	60	-3
Dixon	58	-5
Sato	50	-13
Conway	43	-20
Newgarden	41	-22
Wison	41	-22
Kanaan	41	-22
Kimball	28	-35
Franchitti	27	-36
Hinchcliffe	20	-43
Viso	15	-48
Rahal	13	-50
Munoz	12	-51
Servia	12	-51
Power	10	-53
Bourdais	8	-55
Jakes	8	-55
Tagliani	7	-56
de Silvestro	6	-57
Hildebrand	4	-59
Allmendinger	4	-59
Carpenter	1	-62
Briscoe	1	-62
Beatriz	0	-63
Vautier	0	-63
Saavedra	0	-63

- Well, that tightened up considerably. After 7 of 19 races, basically a third of the way through, it looks like you have some tiers.

- Tier One: Castroneves, Andretti, RHR, Pagenaud, Dixon, and I'll throw in Sato (based on Taku's ability to score in bunches)

- Tier Two: Newgarden, Wilson, Kanaan (I realize that I could also have named this Tier 41, since they all have that many points)

- Tier Three: Everyone else not named Mike Conway.

- Mike Conway gets his own tier, since he's in the sixth spot here after driving in less than half of races this year. That and he is a destroyer of worlds.

Prediction Recap

- #DetroitGP Prediction 3) A Penske or Ganassi finally gets a win in Race 2.

- VERDICT - Nope. I really feel like Power had a shot at it, but he got tangled up in some of the first-half mess... The Ganassis looked good too. But, score one for Schmidt, and none for Guido...

- #DetroitGP Prediction 4) RHR and Castroneves leave Detroit in the top two places in the RSWC.

- VERDICT - Half right. Helio sits atop the RSWC, tied with Marco Andretti. RHR sits right behind them, so I give myself half credit, but I feel good about this call. 

That makes me 2.5 out of 4 for Detroit. Certainly better than I did at Indy...

Stay Tuned

I'm excited for the Texas race coming up. I'm not excited about the sheer amount of data entry that ovals require. But, this should be a speed-fest.

Expect the Hondas to qualify better than they did at Indy. Expect the Hondas to perform better than they did at Indy. If this happens I will feel super-validated in my boost theory.

See you on Friday!

-- Guido