2013 RSWC Table
| Driver | STP | BAR | LBH | SAO | INDY | DET1 | DET2 | TXS | MIL | IOWA | POC | TOR1 | TOR2 | MOH | SON | BAL | Total |
| Castroneves | 25 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 25 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 10 | 150 | ||||
| Dixon | 18 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 4 | 143 | ||||||
| Hunter-Reay | 25 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 18 | 15 | 2 | 126 | ||||||||
| Pagenaud | 12 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 25 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 118 | ||||||
| Andretti | 8 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 116 | |||
| Franchitti | 6 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 101 | ||||||
| Wison | 2 | 18 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 85 | ||||||
| Kimball | 8 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 8 | 25 | 6 | 82 | ||||||||
| Kanaan | 10 | 1 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 79 | |||||||
| Sato | 25 | 25 | 8 | 18 | 76 | ||||||||||||
| Hinchcliffe | 12 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 25 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 75 | |||||||
| Bourdais | 6 | 2 | 18 | 15 | 1 | 25 | 67 | ||||||||||
| Newgarden | 15 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 66 | |||||||||
| Conway | 25 | 18 | 10 | 12 | 65 | ||||||||||||
| Power | 6 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 62 | |||||||||
| Viso | 15 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 42 | |||||||||||
| de Silvestro | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 31 | |||||||||||
| Carpenter | 1 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 29 | ||||||||||
| Servia | 10 | 10 | 6 | 26 | |||||||||||||
| Rahal | 12 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 25 | ||||||||||||
| Saavedra | 12 | 12 | |||||||||||||||
| Munoz | 12 | 12 | |||||||||||||||
| Jakes | 8 | 8 | |||||||||||||||
| Tagliani | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |||||||||||||
| Allmendinger | 4 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
| Hildebrand | 4 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
| Briscoe | 1 | 1 |
That is where we sit right now, with three races to go. Now, let's take a look at this season's remaining contenders in reverse order of current points.
The Mathematical Possibilities
- James Hinchcliffe: If the target doesn't move any higher than 150, Hinch can tie for the top of the table, and would be awarded the title by virtue of having 4 25-point performances.
- Takuma Sato: Basically, the same as Hinch, but Sato's highest possible total is 151.
- Tony Kanaan: TK is in the same boat with a 154-point ceiling. However, I expect him to challenge in Fontana, with a chance at a Double Crown.
Trying to Stay Above the Conway Line
The Conway Line for a 19-round competition is 95 points. These two drivers have a very realistic chance of eclipsing that mark, and ensuring (at least in the opinion of Scoring Indy) that this season goes down for them as a success:
- Charlie Kimball: Charlie's performance this year (including a win at Mid-Ohio) has single-handedly made Ganassi's (as of yet theoretical) fourth car look like an attractive destination for the 2014 IndyCar Series. Sitting at 82 points, Charlie can assure an Above-the-Conway-Line performance with one outstanding drive or two solid ones at some combination of Houston, Houston, and Fontana.
- Justin Wilson: Back when I did the Team RSWC I was surprised to find that Dale Coyne Racing was in the fourth place on the table, behind only IndyCar's Big Three of Penske, Andretti, and Ganassi. Justin Wilson, Coyne's full-time driver is the big reason why. Wilson should lock up a 95+ performance for the year without much incident. Of course, one never knows. Interestingly, Wilson's teammate for Houston's double-header: Mike Conway, can get himself above his namesake line as well if he duplicates his average performance at double-header weekends this year.
Fringe Contenders
Brace yourselves, math is coming. From here on out, you'll get a driver's current points, max points, average points per race, and final points if the driver hold's true to his average. (All fractions are rounded down.)
- Dario Franchitti:
Current Points -- 101
Maximum Points -- 176
Average per Race -- 6.31
Final Points by Average -- 119
As you can see, the Gallant Fox will have to punch well above his weight to make it to the top of our little fake championship this year. Now, based on how Franchitti's year started, 119 RSWC points is an encouraging performance. Dario may be nearing the end of his career, but I think we're still in store for a few more magical moments before he hangs up his Italio-Scottish themed racing helmet. (As a fan of Mr. Fanchitti's I'm going to humbly request that said magical moments occur at next year's Indianapolis 500 Mile Race, please.)
- Marco Andretti:
Current Points -- 116
Maximum Points -- 191
Average per Race -- 7.25
Final Points by Average -- 137
Marco Andretti has had a wonderfully consistent season. This should be encouraging for all fans of the third-generation Andretti. In years past, Marco has been hot and cold. This year, he's only finished outside the top ten twice. Marco has speed. Wins will come. Both his father and grandfather won a major North American Open-Wheel Championship. I expect that Marco will as well, and this is the type of season that indicates to me that he can. Before this year, I don't know that I could have said so.
- Simon Pagenaud:
Current Points -- 118
Maximum Points -- 193
Average per Race -- 7.38
Final Points by Average -- 140
The 2012 IndyCar Series Rookie of the Year is without doubt the hottest driver lately, with performances of 18, 10, and 18 points at Mid-Ohio, Sonoma, and Baltimore. Now, I don't generally subscribe to the theory of momentum in sports. (In auto racing you can make a slight argument because equipment upgrades must be taken into account). But, if I did subscribe to the theory of momentum, I'd point out that if Pagenaud duplicates his last three races in his next three races, he'd hit 156 points. That's enough to put Simon into contention (with a lot of help) for the Race Score World Championship.
In Need of Help
- Ryan Hunter-Reay:
Current Points -- 126
Maximum Points -- 201
Average per Race -- 7.88
Final Points by Average -- 149
Now, as I said, all fractions are rounded down. If Hunter-Reay performs to his average he'll fall just 0.375 points short of 150, which is the current number of points held by Helio Castroneves. It is also important to note that RHR has scored 15 or more points at every oval so far this year except for Pocono (where he was run over by Sato on pit road). This bodes well for the season-concluding Fontana race. RHR hasn't had a good year on street circuits, however, and before the IndyCar Series rolls into Auto Club Speedway there's a street-course double-header in Houston. In short, as the heading suggests, Ryan Hunter-Reay is in need of help to capture the RSWC.
In Control of Their Destinies
- Scott Dixon:
Current Points -- 143
Maximum Points -- 218
Average per Race -- 8.94
Final Points by Average -- 169
This section, featuring the top two contenders for this year's RSWC, is comprised of drivers, who can assure themselves of the championship, simply by winning every race. Dixon falls into this category, since his max points are 218, and the points that Castroneves would record for three second-best drives would be 204. As you can see, 204 is more than Hunter-Reay's max points, ensuring that only IndyCar's Iceman is able to muscle his own way to the top of the table.
Now, if I had to get into the business of prognostication, I wouldn't bet against Dixon yet. I've been saying that he would win this for a good while now, and I'm not going to back off. The only reason (in my opinion) that Dixon isn't currently leading the RSWC points is a combination of a bad strategy (at Mid-Ohio); regrettable, if unavoidable, contact with a crew member (at Sonoma); and regrettable, if avoidable, contact with another car (at Baltimore). Dixon has looked the class of the field ever since Pocono, and I just don't envision him not edging ahead of Helio.
- Helio Castroneves:
Current Points -- 150
Maximum Points -- 225
Average per Race -- 9.38
Final Points by Average -- 178
Castroneves has had a spectacular year. It's been Marco Andretti's year turned up to 11. Consistency has been the watchword for the driver of Roger Penske's Chevrolet, which sports the number 3. Race after race, Helio has found himself in the points, notching the full 25 at St. Pete, Texas, and Milwaukee. He's also pulled down second-best 18 at Barber and the second race in Toronto. Realistically, Castroneves must be considered the favorite to win the RSWC as well as the IndyCar Championship, even if I'm not picking him.
Making the Case
Here's my case for each of the top four drivers to take home the Race Score World Championship.
- The Case for Pagenaud: The case for Pagenaud is momentum. He's driving WELL lately, while the other contenders haven't been putting up results. For Simon to win, he has to string together two podium-type performances in Houston, then hold on at Fontana, hoping none of the other contenders can catch him.
- The Case for Hunter-Reay: The case for RHR is a little harder to make than it is for Pagenaud (who comes into Houston 8 points in arrears). But, I believe that if you wanted to make an argument for the defending series champion it would go like this. 1) Andretti Autosport has not had a good double-header yet. 2) Therefore, the team is due. 3) If the team has a good set up for Houston, it will increase RHR's speed. 4) RHR, with good speed, would get himself into striking distance by the finale. 5) If RHR knows what he needs in Fontana, he will get it, just like he did last year.
- The Case for Dixon: I pretty much made the case for Dixon earlier. But, allow me to reiterate. Dixon would have the lead if any two of these three things hadn't happened: 1) He used the strategy that he used at Mid-Ohio (either a dedicated two-stopper or a three-stopper from the drop of the green would have put him ahead of Castroneves, in my estimation). 2) He had not been penalized for the pit road contact at Sonoma (I still think the penalty was the right thing, but I remember the radio broadcasters saying they didn't think that there would be a penalty at the time). 3) His car hadn't been contacted by Power's at Baltimore. Unfortunately for Dixon, all three of those things happened. And, that's why he's second on the table. If his "luck" continues, such as it is, he'll stay in second.
- The Case for Castroneves: This has hardly been a perfect year for Helio. Yet, he finds himself atop the standings. When things have gone wrong, he's still managed to tally RSWC points. Helio will be Helio for the last three races. And, that will be enough.
Stay Tuned
Next week, here at Scoring Indy we'll gaze into our proverbial crystal ball, and tell you all why we see such a bright future for IndyCar.
See you then!
-- Guido
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