The One-Man IndyCar Fantasy Draft (And Fontana Preview!)

Hello Internet! It's Guido, coming back at you with another Scoring Indy post! This week, I have a little fun and do a little opinion, with the One-Man IndyCar Fantasy Draft. Now, I'm calling this post a draft, but I won't be picking teams against myself. That’s sort of silly. But, I will be giving a variety of “fantasy outlooks” on different IndyCar drivers. For the purposes of this post (and because I love shameless self-promotion #synergy) we’ll be assuming that out fantasy league takes into account all the things that I account for in the Race Score World Championship: Race Finish, Average Running Position, Positions Gained, Laps Led, and Laps Completed. These also, handily happen to be the things that I have a bunch of spreadsheets about. Additionally, I'll be previewing the IndyCar World Championships in Fontana. Onward!

The Sure-Fire First Pick

- Scott Dixon -- I’d have said this before the season as well, for the record. Here’s the thing about Dixon: he can win ANYWHERE. He has won 18 races on ovals. He has won 15 races on twisties. That is the definition of versatile. Since 2007, Dixon has finished in the following positions in the final points standings: 2007 -- 2; 2008 -- 1; 2009 -- 2; 2010 -- 3; 2011 -- 3; 2012 -- 3; and this year, he can finish no worse than second. He’s also clinched the Inaugural Race Score World Championship. Also, Dixon’s only 33. He’s in his prime, as far as driving IndyCars is concerned. Basically, if one had a first pick in a traditional IndyCar fantasy league, and they failed to pick Scott Dixon, that person would be wrong.

Late First Rounders

We can safely assume that the Powers, Castroneveses, Franchittis, and Hunter-Reays are likely to go in the next few picks. If you find yourself picking at the end of the first round of your non-existent IndyCar fantasy draft, here’s where you should look to get your team off on the right foot:

- Simon Pagenaud -- I’d be tempted to take Pagenaud in front of some of the drivers listed in the “We can safely assume” section, but after playing more years than I care to count of fantasy football, I know that early picks are often fandom picks, and those four are more popular. Here are facts about Pagenaud. 1) He has more RSWC points and IndyCar championship points than anyone not named Scott Dixon or Helio Castroneves. 2) He has scored RSWC points in five straight races. 3) He has gone from IndyCar Rookie of the Year to IndyCar Championship threat in two seasons. 4) Honda loves him. LOVES him. I’d snap up Pagenaud before you could say “mid-first round.”

- Marco Andretti -- Andretti has been quiet this year, and this is why he’ll slip this far. Now, here’s why you should pick him up here. Marco has discovered something this year: consistency. There is a reason that this is (by far) his best year for IndyCar points. There’s also a reason that Marco has been lurking (not threatening, but lurking) in the RSWC all year. He had the car to beat for much of the Indy 500. He had the car to beat at Pocono. He hard-lucked out of the podium at both. If you’re picking in the late first round of the hypothetical IndyCar Fantasy Draft, you want Marco.

- Justin Wilson -- Remember when I did the Team RSWC about two thirds of the way through the season? Remember how Dale Coyne Racing was in P4 on that table? Justin Wilson in why. Yes, the team gets help from all the worlds that Mike Conway destroyed at Detroit and Toronto, but Wilson’s been a (more-or-less) steady runner through most of the season. Remember how he finished P5 at Indy? Yeah, no one else does either. BUT he did it! He had a shot to win when the race-ending caution flew, and that’s all that you can ask for at the 500. He improved from P22 on the grid to P7 by the end of the Pocono race, and this is from a road course specialist. Last pick in the first round? You can do worse than Wilson.

Take ‘em for the Upside

In fantasy sports, you can often wind up drafting players based not on what you expect the player to do, but because what they MIGHT do is so incredible that you take a flyer. Here are some drivers to consider when drafting in the second-third rounds for upside (now, you’re probably not having more than three rounds in an IndyCar fantasy draft…).

- Sebastien Bourdais -- Bourdais is your guy if you’ve got an early second rounder. He has looked like the Bourdais of old on select occasions this year. You can track a definite up-tick in his performance since dumping the Lotus power in 2012. But, as with any upside pick, there are question marks. Here they are for Bourdias: 1) He’s moving to KVSH next year. Bourdias has more RSWC points at Dragon this year than Indy 500 champion (and arguably better driver at this stage in their careers) Tony Kanaan has at this year’s KV team. 2) He still has showed about zero ability to perform on an oval track. But, he’s a downright pro on the twisties. Is that enough to make you bite?

- James Hinchcliffe -- Hinch almost doesn’t deserve to be this low in this list. He’s won three races this year. He’s teetering dangerously close to the Conway Line, which defines excellence over the course of a season. But, the Mayor of Hinchtown has been boom or bust this season. He wins races; he banks big-time RSWC points; he DNFs. And, it’s the DNFs that are the problem. I can imagine that several hypothetical IndyCar fantasy leagues would penalize one for DNFs. An interesting draft strategy might be to roll the dice with an early Hinchcliffe pick, and open up some possibilities for yourself in later rounds.

- Takuma Sato -- Sato is a poor man’s Hinchcliffe. He’s gotten good finishes this year, such as at Long Beach and Sao Paulo. But, more often than not he’s caused himself problems, and even when he looked to have rallied back and gotten a pole at the first Houston race, the car got mechanically away from him. If you have a late pick, and want to roll the dice, Taku’s your guy. Also, I expect improvement from Hinch. I'm not convinced that we'll see much more than this from Sato.

Fontana Preview

Now, usually, this would have been the whole post today, but (as you probably recognized) I failed to post a post last week. I was at a denominational professional leader's conference, and it just didn't happen. But, there it is above. Anyway, here's what happened last year at Auto Club Speedway:

Race Finish	Driver	Qualifying	Grid	Laps Led	Completed	A.R.S.
1	Carpenter	8	5	62	250	72.98
2	Franchitti	20	9	15	250	75.12
3	Dixon	5	15	25	250	64.62
4	Hunter-Reay	18	22	0	250	75.00
5	Castroneves	16	17	2	250	64.82
6	Rahal	10	18	0	250	55.77
7	Sato	15	21	6	249	60.73
8	Andretti	1	1	3	249	23.73
9	Legge	11	7	0	249	34.62
10	Kimball	19	23	0	249	53.76
11	Hildebrand	9	4	56	248	33.30
12	Jakes	24	12	10	248	42.28
13	Hinchcliffe	13	19	0	247	32.62
14	Cunningham	22	24	0	246	42.03
15	Pagenaud	14	20	0	246	26.86
16	Newgarten	3	14	1	244	7.27
17	Briscoe	2	2	2	244	-8.53
18	Kanaan	6	3	47	240	1.41
19	Servia	17	8	0	231	3.83
20	Tagliani	7	16	21	229	2.34
21	Saavadra	21	10	0	118	6.55
22	Barrichello	12	6	0	107	-1.08
23	Wilson	25	25	0	80	8.92
24	Power	4	13	0	66	-2.10
25	Viso	23	11	0	65	-0.15
26	de Silvestro	26	26	0	16	1.92

Observations

- Expect equal funkiness between qualifying and the starting grid this year, as divers and teams change out engines to make sure that they have reliable equipment for the 500-mile Championship Decider / Leader's Circle Determiner / Triple Crown Event / Job Audition.

- The first two Triple Crown events are of about zero help in determining who will perform well in this race. Now, I think that next year, with Pocono going to 500 miles, that will not be the case then. I don't know why, but 500-milers are completely different beasts than 400-milers.

- I expect that the Chevrolet-powered cars to perform better in terms of speed than the Hondas. This has been the case on oval after oval after oval this year. The Honda engines might do better for fuel economy, but I don't expect this to be a fuel number race, and there will be cautions, which will help or hurt any given fuel strategy more or less at random.

Stay Tuned

I'm thinking of bringing back Twitter Predictions for the season finale. Check back on Twitter @ScoringIndy after qualifying tonight or tomorrow morning.

Should be exciting! See you Saturday Night!

-- Guido

Race Recap -- Houston Race 2

Hello Internet! Guido back here with an express-delivered (as promised) Race Recap for the second race of the Grand Prix of Houston double-header. There's plenty to talk about, so let's jump in with the numbers:


2013 Houston Race 2 Scores

Race Finish	Driver	Grid	Laps Led	Completed	Race Score	RSWC Points
1	Power	9	51	90	94.23	25
2	Dixon	2	29	90	73.69	18
3	Hinchcliffe	8	0	90	64.74	15
4	Wilson	6	0	90	58.89	8
5	Bourdais	13	0	90	62.59	12
6	Pagenaud	3	0	90	46.91	2
7	Servia	21	0	90	62.53	10
8	Kimball	10	0	90	45.94	1
9	Conway	16	0	90	49.43	6
10	de Silvestro	17	0	90	42.41
11	Vautier	22	0	90	45.59
12	Saavedra	24	0	90	48.92	4
13	Newgarden	14	0	90	31.60
14	Sato	15	0	89	34.86
15	Franchitti	7	0	89	14.75
16	Viso	12	0	89	26.82
17	Jakes	20	0	89	27.11
18	Rahal	19	0	88	15.49
19	Filippi	23	0	88	20.90
20	Andretti	4	0	88	-6.02
21	Hunter-Reay	5	0	87	-4.38
22	Carpenter	18	0	61	5.86
23	Castroneves	1	10	53	-9.16
24	Kanaan	11	0	32	2.79

Observations

- First of all, I actually observed this race, so I can make some comments based on what I saw, in addition to the raw data.

- A quick note on method, since the field was set via entrant points coming into the weekend, I've just scored the race against the starting grid. For instance, Sato and Franchitti are scored as having started P15 and P7 on grid respectively. Now, the two of them were moved to the back of the grid for the second and "official" start, and this gets reflected in their Average Running Position numbers, but not the grid.

- Two climbers of note: 

1) Servia. This is what Oriol Servia does. He gains positions over the course of races. He did it last season. He did it at Long Beach this year, then again at Sao Paulo. The question for the man from Pals is this: is that enough? I suppose that's also the question for any team owner looking to hire Servia: is it enough that he gains spots on track? Does it matter that he's only won a single major open-wheel race (a 2005 Champ Car tilt in Montreal)? I hope it is enough. 

2) Sebastian Saavedra. Saavedra doesn't really impress me, as a general rule. BUT, this was an impressive strategic outing from the #6 team. They used a smart strategy pitting early in the first window (which didn't cost anything, since Saavedra has only slightly more entrant points than I do), and that allowed them to run as high as P3, and running as high as P3 does wonders for one's Average Running Position. The yellows didn't fall their way from there, but it still sneaked the young Columbian into the 12th place in the box score.

- Two climbers who will be quickly noted:

1) Vautier up 11 spots.

2) Bourdais up 8.

- Someone give Dale Coyne a winning lottery ticket. Please. Justin Wilson has had an Above-the-Conway-Line year. Mike Conway has run in 7 races this year: scoring RSWC points in 5 of them. 5 of 7 is 71%. Dixon has scored in 12 of 18 races; that's 67%. Castroneves: 67% as well. RHR: 44%. Pagenaud: 67%. Marco: 72%. Do we sense a pattern? Dale has great drivers, who have turned in great performances this year (as I pointed out in the Team RSWC article). Now, if he had the money (which he famously lacks) to develop and test the same as the big teams, his cars could really challenge.

- Josef Newgarden, despite finishing the race with a different nose than he started with, and serving a drive-through, finishes on the lead lap. I'd say that's the definition of respectable. Good weekend from (rapidly becoming) my favorite driver without an Italian name. (Maybe I'll start calling him Giuseppe...)

- Now, on to the coronation:

RSWC Update

Driver	RCWC Points	Points Back
Dixon	186	0
Castroneves	154	-32
Pagenaud	128	-58
Hunter-Reay	126	-60
Andretti	116	-70
Wilson	108	-78
Franchitti	101	-85
Hinchcliffe	90	-96
Power	89	-97
Newgarden	84	-102
Kimball	83	-103
Bourdais	83	-103
Kanaan	79	-107
Sato	76	-110
Conway	71	-115
Viso	43	-143
de Silvestro	43	-143
Rahal	33	-153
Carpenter	29	-157
Servia	28	-158
Saavedra	16	-170
Jakes	14	-172
Munoz	12	-174
Tagliani	7	-179
Hildebrand	4	-182
Allmendinger	4	-182
Briscoe	1	-185

- Dixon's done it. As you can see, with 25 being the maximum points available in any given racing weekend, Scott Dixon has clinched the Race Score World Championship. He might as well stay home at Fontana.

- On second thought, he might not want to do that. I'm sure winning an IndyCar Series championship pays way better than winning a fake championship given out by a guy with less than 50 Twitter followers...

- We'll take a deeper look at Mr. Dixon's drive to the top in the weeks after the Series finale.

- I sort of hope that Helio wins the IndyCar title now, so that I can have some fun doing compare-contrast.

- One last thing before we leave Houston.

The Wreck

- Just some bullets here. It's still pretty raw.

- Seeing the replay of Dario's crash reminded me WAY too much of October 16, 2011. I'm sure it was that way for many IndyCar fans. When I texted Hoff (who was watching football) to tell him that we almost lost Dario (because that is how I felt), the best way I had to describe the wreck was that it "looked a lot like Dan's."

- I had a pretty good idea that Dario wasn't in bad shape by the time that I saw the crash itself, however. NBCSN did a good job of showing Dario moving inside the cockpit, even if this was overshadowed by the horrific nature of the accident itself.

- Any more speculation about the future of the Gallant Fox (I'm on record with him being my favorite motor racing driver ever, right? If not, I am now. That's why this is so tough.) can wait until later. For now, get well Dario. I cried when you won the 500 in 2012. I'll cry the day you hang them up, but it'll be nothing like what would have happened if we'd lost you back in Houston.

Stay Tuned

- Coming up on Friday, an opinion piece: Scoring Indy's One-Man IndyCar Fantasy Draft. Then, on October 18, my Fontana preview. The week after that, I'll have race and season reviews.

- After that, however, I'm going to start running short on material. I'll play around with silly season stuff some, but without race data, a race data blog starts to get malnourished. So, I'm turning to you, the (I'm assuming) seven (totally arbitrary number) people who read this: what do you want from Scoring Indy during the off season? Seriously. No case too big. No case too small. Let me know.

- The best way to let me know, of course, is on Twitter. Follow me @ScoringIndy for blog updates, sometimes predictions, and always opinions.

Later!

-- Guido

Race Recap -- Houston Race 1

Hello Internet! Guido here with another Scoring Indy Race Recap. I didn't get a chance to watch the first Houston race, since my father was in from out of town for my town's Fermentation Fest (I think Pressdog would have a thing or two to say about that...) Anyway, here are the numbers:


2013 Houston Race One Scores

Race Finish	Driver	Qualifying	Grid	Laps Led	Completed	A.R.S	RSWC Points
1	Dixon	3	3	44	90	83.35	25
2	de Silvestro	6	5	0	90	63.80	12
3	Wilson	14	12	0	90	64.49	15
4	Pagenaud	5	4	0	90	56.16	8
5	Newgarden	20	18	0	90	64.77	18
6	Jakes	11	9	0	90	49.88	6
7	Rahal	19	24	0	90	57.64	10
8	Bourdais	4	14	0	90	47.58	4
9	Viso	9	8	0	90	44.27	1
10	Filippi	8	7	0	90	42.28
11	Kimball	17	16	0	90	44.15
12	Power	2	2	40	90	47.56	2
13	Andretti	12	10	0	90	29.80
14	Saavedra	21	19	0	89	33.44
15	Franchitti	10	20	0	89	24.12
16	Conway	13	11	0	85	22.30
17	Sato	1	1	6	82	9.35
18	Castroneves	22	21	0	80	19.92
19	Servia	18	17	0	63	18.29
20	Hunter-Reay	16	15	0	57	13.82
21	Kanaan	15	13	0	34	5.96
22	Vautier	24	23	0	32	5.91
23	Carpenter	23	22	0	30	3.01
24	Hinchcliffe	7	6	0	1	1.40

Observations

- Again, these aren't physical observations, since I didn't get my eyes on to the race yet, but here are my extrapolations based on the lap chart and scores.

- Punching above their weight: Wilson, Newgarden, Jakes, and Rahal all pulled in big days, despite not having the best cars. Average Running Positions for those four were 9.57, 11.37, 11.09, and 15.00 respectively. Some of that can be attributed to the time they spent working up through the field, but some of it is being on at the right time. Rahal, for instance, didn't crack the Top 10 until lap 73.

- A bad last stint'll get ya: the converse of the group above, Bourdais, Viso, and Filippi had Average Running Positions of 7.74, 7.62, and 6.06 giving them a slight under-performance in P8-P10. Now, in each case this is a result of making pit stops during or after the lap 65-69 caution and then getting burned by the next yellow. Of course, this also severely affected one other driver:

- Power unlucky again: Will Power is having a bummer of a year. Yes, he won at Sonoma, but still this has been a rough one on the driver, who (I think) we all expect to contend for titles on a regular basis. Power was ahead of Dixon based on speed (from all I can tell based on the chart) with Dixon's passes for the lead coming based on pit strategy. Even finishing in P12, Will Power had an Average Running Position of 3.42. Good drive, sir. Good drive.

- Finally, I want to commend a couple of drivers that pulled in excellent Race Scores. Josef Newgarden has shown real promise this year and his 18 RSWC Points from P5 in the race are well earned. This kid's going to be winning races before long. And, James Jakes, who has shown flashes of promise at different times throughout the year, pulls in his second RSWC Points result this season. If 45 points is the benchmark for a "good drive" under the New Formula, then this is easily Jakes' best since Detroit #2.

RSWC Update

Here are the Race Score World Championship standings after the first Houston race:

Driver	RCWC Points	Points Back
Dixon	168	0
Castroneves	154	-14
Hunter-Reay	126	-42
Pagenaud	126	-42
Andretti	116	-52
Franchitti	101	-67
Wilson	100	-68
Newgarden	84	-84
Kimball	82	-86
Kanaan	79	-89
Sato	76	-92
Hinchcliffe	75	-93
Bourdais	71	-97
Conway	65	-103
Power	64	-104
Viso	43	-125
de Silvestro	43	-125
Rahal	33	-135
Carpenter	29	-139
Servia	18	-150
Jakes	14	-154
Munoz	12	-156
Saavedra	12	-156
Tagliani	7	-161
Hildebrand	4	-164
Allmendinger	4	-164
Briscoe	1	-167

- Remember that lengthy RSWC post a couple of weeks ago? Well, it just got a lot simpler. The only mathematical contenders remaining to Scott Dixon (new front-runner) are: Castroneves, Hunter-Reay, and Pagenaud. And, when you consider that all Dixon has to do is score 11 more points than Helio to end the RSWC before Fontana, we can see that this little contest is all but over.

- Dixon seems to have found a luck-wagon in the second half of the season (especially on street courses) that has left him the front of the field. While carnage is almost a given (especially on street courses, I'll talk about Dario's crash in Race Two tomorrow), Dixon has had his problems in races where his rivals couldn't capitalize:

- When Dixon was penalized at Sonoma: Castroneves scored 4 RSWC Points, Hunter-Reay scored 2, and Pagenaud got 10.

- When Dixon got punted at Baltimore: Helio didn't score, RHR was already out, and Pagenaud, despite winning the race only got P2 in the RSWC standings.

- Conversely, when Dixon's foes stumble, he capitalizes. Pagenaud couldn't come close to Dixon's numbers here at Houston #1, only notching 8 points (which was still 8 more than Helio or RHR). Toronto #1 and Pocono paint similar pictures.

- I haven't run the numbers yet, but knowing what I know about the outcome of Houston #2, I'd say we're ready to crown a Race Score World Champion. Well done, Mr. Dixon. Well done.

Stay Tuned

I actually did watch Houston Race 2, so when those scores come up tomorrow, I'll be able to offer some eye-ball insight. Maybe I'll be able to gaze upon Race 1 by that point as well.

Scores for the second Houston race will go live tomorrow evening.

Until then, follow @ScoringIndy on Twitter for updates.

See you on the morrow!

-- Guido