Scoring the Chaos -- Long Beach 2014

Hello Internet! It's Guido here with your Race Scores from the 2014 Toyota Grand Prix of Long Beach. That was one crazy race, so let's see what kind of sense we can make out of it. Here goes:


Long Beach 2014 Scores

Finish	Driver	Grid	Led	Completed	A.R.P	Race Score	RSWC Points
1	Conway	17	3	80	9.64	78.59	10
2	Power	14	0	80	7.38	73.37	8
3	Munoz	11	0	80	8.30	64.78	5
4	Montoya	16	0	80	10.71	65.63	6
5	Pagenaud	6	0	80	9.75	49.64
6	Aleshin	20	0	80	14.86	59.62	4
7	Servia	12	0	80	11.35	50.22	1
8	Andretti	8	0	80	9.78	43.80
9	Saavedra	22	3	80	15.44	54.24	3
10	Huertas	21	0	80	12.93	52.28	2
11	Castroneves	9	0	80	10.49	35.53
12	Dixon	7	22	80	8.53	41.74
13	Rahal	23	0	79	15.00	43.13
14	Bourdais	3	0	77	13.22	14.18
15	Hawksworth	5	0	77	9.87	18.80
16	Wison	10	0	64	11.34	19.31
17	Briscoe	18	0	60	20.35	15.20
18	Kanaan	13	0	55	14.38	13.30
19	Newgarden	4	1	55	4.49	12.03
20	Hunter-Reay	1	51	55	1.20	24.19
21	Hinchcliffe	2	0	55	3.15	6.20
22	Sato	15	0	55	17.04	2.86
23	Kimball	19	0	41	12.88	6.74

Observations

- File this under "Something You Don't See Every Day" The three best Average Running Positions in finishing positions 19-21.

- Looking at the top couple of Race Scores, you can see that we're hanging out in the 70s this time around. The 70s usually means excitement and/or chaos. True on both counts.

- Is Jack Hawksworth Marco Andretti circa 2011? He clearly has both speed and guts, but not results. If some results ever show up, you can say that you heard it here first.

- I'm not sure if the results from this one reflect the depth of the IndyCar field, or if they reflect the chaos inherent in much of street racing. We'll see if Aleshin, Servia, Saavedra, and Huertas are scoring RSWC points, as we move to road courses and ovals. That'll go a long way toward providing an answer.

Prediction Review

- #TGPLB40 Prediction 1) (We're running this one back from last week) Hawksworth is the highest finishing rookie in the race.

VERDICT - No. No. A thousand times no. Hawksworth got underneath (literally) Josef Newgarden, and finished 3 laps down. 0 for 1 (and I'm no longer sure that Jack can come to my birthday party...)

- #TGPLB40 Prediction 2) Mike Conway (Destroyer of Worlds) scores RSWC points.

VERDICT - Yes! Yes! A thousand times yes! Conway destroys ALL POSSIBLE WORLDS, and gets lucky vis a vis avoiding trouble and Scott Dixon needing fuel, and gets all the points! 1 for 2.

- #TGPLB40 Prediction 3) I'll take Newgarden or Bourdais to win. As usual, you get the field.

VERDICT - Bourdais ran near the front early, but couldn't manage to stay on course. Newgarden could definately have won, but got punted by RHR. 1 for 3.

- #TGPLB40 Prediction 4) Two cars from Andretti Autosport finish higher than any Penske or Ganassi.

VERDICT - This was definitely possible. Hinchcliffe and Hunter-Reay were major contenders. Look at their Average Running Positions. But, as I noted above, RHR punted Newgarden and Hinchcliffe got collected. This makes me 1 for 4. Ugh. (Maybe Ryan Hunter-Reay shouldn't be invited to my birthday party either...)

- One Last Thing -- I'm clearly being mocked by the entire nation of Columbia. After predicting that the Yellow, Blue, and Red would claim points in the Race Score World Championship at St. Pete, I backed off for Long Beach. Then ALL FOUR COLOMBIANS tally points this race. I am really bad at predictions...

RSWC Update

Here's the updated points table for the Race Score World Championship:

Driver	Points	Difference
Power	18	--
Conway	10	-8
Castroneves	8	-10
Montoya	6	-12
Hunter-Reay	6	-12
Munoz	5	-13
Pagenaud	5	-13
Aleshin	4	-14
Dixon	4	-14
Saavedra	3	-15
Wilson	3	-15
Huertas	2	-16
Newgarden	2	-16
Servia	1	-17
Sato	1	-17

- You'll see that the only driver, who has scored points in both races, is Will Power. Note that three point-scorers from St. Petersburgh were taken out in the RHR-Newgarden melee (Hunter-Reay, Newgarden, and Sato).

- This gives Will Power a dramatic lead in the RSWC. In fact, the only two drivers who could catch him in one race are Helio Castroneves and Mike Conway, Destroyer of Worlds.

- That large points gap leaves the points table as a somewhat sub-par indicator of performance so far. So, let's take a look at the Average Race Scores for 2014:

Driver	Average Score
Power	82.76
Pagenaud	55.13
Castroneves	53.52
Servia*	50.22
Dixon	49.33
Montoya	47.03
Aleshin	44.73
Conway	44.03
Hunter-Reay	43.91
Saavedra	43.06
Rahal	39.07
Wison	38.07
Munoz	37.52
Newgarden	33.97
Huertas	32.20
Kanaan	29.66
Sato	28.57
Briscoe	26.25
Bourdais	21.91
Andretti	18.20
Hawksworth	9.44
Kimball	8.06
Hinchcliffe	7.65

*Denotes running an incomplete schedule.

- This is slightly more helpful. It shows that Will Power has had two VERY good races (but, we knew that already), and also that Hawksworth, Kimball, and Hinchcliffe have had two real disappointments.

- Surprised to see Juan Pablo Montoya so high initially. We'll see if he has more St. Pete-like or more Long Beach-like days in the future? Along with that, is Aleshin really that good, or does the small sample size plus the chaos at Long Beach benefit his average for the moment?

- Newgarden is probably better than a 33.97 at this point in his career.

- Rotten luck for Kimball and Hinchcliffe so far. A couple of race winners from last year that are averaging single-digit scores right now. That's the definition of stumbling out of the gate.

Chase for My Heart

This was not a great week for the drivers in the Chase for My Heart. In a 23-car field, positions 16-23 were occupied by drivers vying for my affections. I'm not sure if I should be personally offended by this, but I will say that the guest list for my birthday party is rapidly shrinking. But, enough negativity, here's how the Chase for My Heart shook out for Long Beach:

Chaser	LBH (Race Finish)
Power	2
Munoz	3
Pagenaud	5
Andretti	8
Castroneves	11
Dixon	12
Rahal	13
Bourdais	14
Wilson	16
Briscoe	17
Kanaan	18
Newgarden	19
Hunter-Reay	20
Hinchcliffe	21
Sato	22
Kimball	23
Key:	BEST
	SAFE
	ELIMINATED

- Hunter-Reay, Hinchcliffe, Sato, and Kimball are officially out.

- So, this leaves us with the following twelve drivers still alive to be my new (and completely arbitrary) favorite driver: Will Power, Carlos Munoz, Simon Pagenaud, Marco Andretti, Helio Castroneves, Scott Dixon, Graham Rahal, Sebastien Bourdais, Justin Wilson, Ryan Briscoe, Tony Kanaan, and Josef Newgarden.

- Also, it appears that there is some justice in the universe. Hunter-Reay's punt of Newgarden puts RHR out of the Chase, while Newgarden sneaks past in the twelfth spot.

- Be sure to follow all of the Chasers in action on April 27 at the Honda Grand Prix of Alabama. I'll be cutting the field down from 12 to 8 after the race. This time, the deciding factor will be Average Running Position. I need a favorite driver who can put the car up front and keep it there. Or, put it up front and get crashed, whichever the case may be.

Stay Tuned

Well, that's all the trouble that I'm going to cause this week. I'm about to hit major "radio silence" for Holy Week. So, I'll sign off, as I said on Friday, by wishing you all a Blessed Easter (slightly early) and/or a pleasant weekend. I'll see you again before Barber!

-- Guido