I Challenge You to a Dual

Hello, Internet!! It's Guido, back with another Scoring Indy Race Weekend Preview. This weekend, the Verizon IndyCar Series abandons the flat-out oval at 16th and Georgetown in Speedway, IN and makes its way to Belle Isle State Park in Detroit. So, today, we'll take a look at how things shook out at last year's doubleheader, and see what that tells us moving into race weekend in 2014.


2014 Dual in Detroit

Race 1

Finish	Driver	Qual.	Grid	Laps Led	Completed	A.R.S.
1	Conway	3	2	47	70	90.53
2	Hunter-Reay	5	4	20	70	76.63
3	Wilson	17	16	3	70	76.38
4	Dixon	16	15	0	70	65.49
5	Castroneves	12	12	0	70	63.16
6	Franchitti	1	11	0	70	53.28
7	Newgarden	23	25	0	70	62.84
8	Power	10	9	0	70	53.26
9	Rahal	14	23	0	70	52.42
10	Jakes	4	3	0	70	32.82
11	Vautier	7	6	0	70	32.30
12	Pagenaud	9	8	0	70	34.38
13	Kanaan	20	19	0	70	45.26
14	Kimball	25	25	0	70	40.21
15	Hinchcliffe	21	20	0	70	37.39
16	de Silvestro	18	17	0	70	30.25
17	Viso	2	1	0	70	4.91
18	Carpenter	24	22	0	69	27.79
19	Sato	8	7	0	68	7.37
20	Andretti	19	18	0	67	16.41
21	Briscoe	22	21	0	66	21.09
22	Saavedra	11	10	0	32	5.52
23	Tagliani	6	5	0	28	5.81
24	Bourdais	15	14	0	19	1.82
25	Allmendinger	13	13	0	0	1.33

Race 2

Finish	Driver	Grid	Led	Completed	Race Score
1	Pagenaud	6	18	70	77.37
2	Jakes	2	4	70	60.27
3	Conway	1	31	70	73.64
4	Dixon	7	0	70	61.47
5	Franchitti	16	0	70	68.21
6	Andretti	14	0	70	58.95
7	Kimball	18	3	70	64.86
8	Castroneves	9	0	70	46.51
9	Rahal	15	0	70	49.79
10	Saavedra	11	0	70	41.92
11	Bourdais	22	0	70	52.55
12	Kanaan	19	10	70	55.39
13	Briscoe	13	0	69	32.74
14	Vautier	20	1	69	44.03
15	Carpenter	23	0	66	36.21
16	Newgarden	24	0	64	32.11
17	Viso	5	0	61	10.93
18	Hunter-Reay	4	0	59	7.16
19	Hinchcliffe	10	0	57	11.95
20	Power	3	3	53	6.40
21	Tagliani	25	0	27	12.00
22	Wilson	8	0	27	6.93
23	Sato	21	0	23	7.43
24	de Silvestro	17	0	8	3.22
25	Allmendinger	12	0	0	1.33

Observations

I know that's a WHOLE lot to digest. So, let's break it down. Here are five drivers, who by my math from last year and their performances this year (so far) have compelling stories this weekend.

1) Graham Rahal -- I like Graham Rahal. If Graham had remained at Ganassi Racing or had shown some serious fight since moving over to the family business, there would have been no Chase for My Heart. Graham would have easily been my favorite driver. All this is to say that the "Kurt Busch leads Graham Rahal in the points" talk makes my heart hurt. But, fear not, me! Detroit was kind to young Rahal last year. He gained positions both races. He scored over 45 for a Race Score both times. If there was ever a time for Graham to un-funk himself, this would be it. I won't hold my breath, but dang I want this for Graham.

2) Mike Conway -- This weekend last year was what made me sit up and take notice of Mr. Conway. I began referring to him as a Destroyer of Worlds after Race 1, and he held it up in Race 2. Conway had a good start to 2014, but it's been over a month since his last decent performance. Will a trip back to his greatest conquest of 2013 get him back on track? The next two days will tell.

3) Ryan Hunter-Reay -- Fresh off his Indy 500 conquest, Hunter-Reay comes to a track where he had highs and lows last year. It's also been a year of highs and lows for RHR. Now that I read that, however, I should say "a year of highs and low." Hunter-Reay's one bad race was in Long Beach, where he got excited and rammed the back of Josef Newgarden. Now, Long Beach is a narrow street track, not unlike Belle Isle. Will Hunter-Reay be his own worst enemy again?

4) Simon Pagenaud -- After an excellent strategy race at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Pagenaud was decidedly average in the 500. Not that average is bad. Average at the 500 is pretty solid stuff. But, Pagenaud has gotten shuffled way back in the points shuffle. But, just like double points are available at Triple Crown races, they're available at doubleheaders (except that you have to do it twice). Could Pagenaud re-insert himself into the conversation?

5) Will Power -- My Australian Overlord has never been especially brilliant at Belle Isle. He was near the front in 2012. He improved his position a little in Race 1 last year. He got tangled up in some brouhaha in Race 2, and wound up farther back. On the whole, Power hasn't looked on RHR's level this year (I'm not entirely sure that this is right, but I'm saying it, push back on Twitter if you want). If Power wants to get on track for the IndyCar Series championship that has eluded him, this would be a great time to do it...

Stay Tuned

I'll be putting up race predictions once qualifying for Race 1 is done. Those are always a hoot. Follow @ScoringIndy on Twitter to make sure you always see those predictions, as well as blog updates. See you after the races!!

-- Guido

2014 Indy 500 -- Oh, What a Race

Hello Internet! It's Guido here with the Race Scores from the Greatest Spectacle in Racing for 2014. Bear with me a little, however, because I'm about to wax philosophical:

Ever since listening to the 2014 Indy 500, (I can't ever bring myself to watch the 500 live, having grown up in the "Indianapolis Media Market," besides I don't have traditional television service here at the parsonage.) I've been thinking about what "legitimates" a driver. And, I've been thinking about this because of our 2014 Indy 500 winner: Ryan Hunter-Reay.

I have to be honest in saying that I was not sure how "legitimate" of a "contender" Ryan Hunter-Reay was before the Indy 500. I mean, obviously there was something there. You don't win a series championship (as he did in 2012) or go on a three race tear (like he did that year in Milwaukee, Iowa, and Toronto) without having piles of talent. But, he just never seemed next-level good to me.

- Dario -- Next-Level Good.
- Dixon, Power, Helio -- Next-Level.
- Marco -- Capable of it.
- Pagenaud -- Getting There.
- Wilson -- At Least Once a Year.
- Mike Conway -- Do I Really Need to Say It? (#DestroyerOfWorlds).
- Carpenter -- As Long as He's Not Turning Right.

That's just how my mind sorted IndyCar Series drivers out. And, Looking at average Race Scores (from this year and last) I feel like I'm spot on about the above drivers. But, RHR just seemed "good." Nothing wrong with good. Good is good. But, that's all it felt like to me. It felt like Hunter-Reay was the Oriol Servia of Andretti Autosport. I can't say why. But, with this performance at Indy, (you'll see just how good it was below) Hunter-Reay just might be moving to that Next-Level Tier in my mind. And, that's not a bad thing.

Ok, I'm not sure that made any sense, but these do. Here are the numbers:


2014 Indianapolis 500 Scores

Finish	Driver	Grid	Led	Completed	A.R.P	Race Score	RSWC Points
1	Hunter-Reay	19	56	200	4.86	90.29	10
2	Castroneves	4	38	200	3.41	71.58	8
3	Andretti	6	20	200	4.06	67.92	6
4	Munoz	9	0	200	8.37	61.24	3
5	Montoya	10	16	200	8.48	62.79	4
6	Busch	12	0	200	14.35	54.19	1
7	Bourdais	17	0	200	13.74	57.84	2
8	Power	3	22	200	7.66	51.49
9	Karam	31	0	200	16.15	65.51	5
10	Hildebrand	9	0	200	9.33	48.16
11	Servia	18	0	200	18.28	46.18
12	Pagenaud	5	0	200	15.10	34.24
13	Tagliani	24	3	200	21.87	45.08
14	Villeneuve	27	0	200	23.71	43.73
15	Saavedra	32	0	200	23.31	47.16
16	Davison	28	0	200	22.94	41.47
17	Huertas	21	0	200	25.12	30.19
18	Briscoe	20	0	200	25.04	27.23
19	Sato	23	0	200	16.01	37.37
20	Hawksworth	13	0	200	21.28	19.92
21	Aleshin	15	1	198	21.81	19.49
22	Wilson	14	0	198	14.15	23.97
23	Plowman	29	0	186	27.94	22.44
24	Mann	22	0	193	27.22	14.76
25	Bell	25	0	190	10.90	31.26
26	Kanaan	16	1	177	23.26	8.89
27	Carpenter	1	26	175	4.77	13.72
28	Hinchcliffe	2	14	175	6.45	9.48
29	Dixon	11	3	167	5.56	14.28
30	Newgarden	8	0	156	15.99	0.90
31	Kimball	26	0	149	21.85	8.41
32	Lazier	33	0	87	30.16	4.15
33	Rahal	20	0	44	30.25	-1.05

Observations

- I said above that you'd see how good of a race RHR ran. 90+ Race Scores are special. And, they just don't happen in DW-12s on big ovals. This is the first one (not that the sample size is huge for DW-12 chassis on Triple Crown tracks). Huge ups to him. He too a car that qualified P19, and ran it in the Top 5 all day long. A well deserved win, and a win that has certainly earned my respect (see above).

- Just mega stuff from Sage Karam. Outperformed his qualifying position, and also improved the car as the day went along. You can tell this because his finishing position greatly exceeded his Average Running Position. And, if you look at the lap chart (which I have spent WAY too much time doing today) you'll see that Karam worked his way into the conversation about a quarter of the way through the race, and just kept hanging around P9-P14. Finishing at the higher end of that served him well.

- A couple of guys who have spent more time in stock cars recently than open-wheel cars had better-than-solid runs. Kurt Busch found himself in the RSWC points (not bad for moonlighting.) And, Jacques Villeneuve kept his car clean all day long, moving up from P27 on the grid to finish P14.

- I'm beginning to doubt that Pippa Mann has a future as a full-time driver. That makes me really sad. I'm going to leave it there.

- Some "runs to be proud of" that don't fit anywhere else: Saavedra (47.16); Tagliani (45.08) Davison (41.47, with basically zero practice); and Hildebrand (48.16).

RSWC Update

Here's what the RSWC Table looks like, right now. Observations below.

Driver	Points	Difference
Hunter-Reay	34	--
Castroneves	26	-8
Power	20	-14
Pagenaud	14	-20
Andretti	14	-20
Conway	10	-24
Dixon	10	-24
Montoya	10	-24
Kimball	8	-26
Wilson	8	-26
Munoz	8	-26
Bourdais	6	-28
Karam	5	-29
Aleshin	4	-30
Kanaan	3	-31
Hawksworth	3	-31
Saavedra	3	-31
Briscoe	3	-31
Huertas	2	-32
Newgarden	2	-32
Servia	2	-32
Sato	1	-33
Busch	1	-33

- With the win, Hunter-Reay stretches out an impressive lead in the season championship. Only Castroneves is within one race's worth of points. "Ryan Hunter-Reay is Slowly Impressing Me" is slowly becoming the theme of this post.

- Outside the Top 5, the table really isn't that interesting. I blame this on the fact that I'm giving out less points this year for fewer positions. I expect this to be much more intriguing after Detroit.

Hall of Averages

I'm sprucing up the Hall of Averages this week, splitting the full-season entrants and part-timers up. Otherwise, things would have looked funny with all of the one-off programs put together for Indy. Here are the full-season drivers:

Driver	Average Score
Hunter-Reay	67.40
Power	64.11
Pagenaud	55.10
Castroneves	50.77
Wison	42.81
Andretti	41.14
Dixon	39.67
Bourdais	37.47
Briscoe	36.84
Montoya	34.35
Sato	33.74
Kanaan	33.47
Huertas	31.65
Saavedra	31.21
Hawksworth	29.02
Kimball	27.72
Munoz	27.37
Newgarden	25.73
Rahal	22.69
Aleshin	21.58
Hinchcliffe	17.20

And, the part-timers (complete with number of races contested):

Driver	Average Score	Races
Karam	65.51	1
Hildebrand	48.16	1
Tagliani	45.08	1
Villeneuve	43.73	1
Davison	41.47	1
Servia	40.23	4
Conway	35.37	4
Bell	31.26	1
Plowman	25.36	2
Mann	14.76	1
Carpenter	13.72	1
Montagny	12.75	1
Lazier	4.15	1

- My comments about most of the one-off Indianapolis drivers are in the Indy 500 observations above.

- The full-time drivers table is interesting in a lot of ways. I've commented on Carlos Huertas a couple of times already, but I find it interesting that he's the best performing rookie so far, on average. We'll see if his average stays up there.

- Servia, once again, proves that he has the talent to be full time in this series. Race Score is a measure of relative performance, and running only one less race than Scott Dixon (reigning series champion) Servia has practically the same average race score: ergo practically the same performance relative to starting position. That's driver skill, ladies and gentlemen.

- I am dangerously close to giving up trying to understand Graham Rahal, James Hinchcliffe, and Charlie Kimball. I feel like all three of them should be doing better.

Prediction Review

Here's how I did at this year's 500:

#Indy500 Prediction 1) My Australian Overlord, Will Power, leaves Indy with the RSWC lead.

- VERDICT -- Well, no. That belongs to race winner Ryan Hunter-Reay. 0 for 1.

#Indy500 Prediction 2) Rookie of the Year -- Kurt Busch

- VERDICT -- I'll call the jury out on this. Busch was the highest-finishing rookie. Karam was the rookie with the best Race Score. I'll give myself half a point now, and wait for the official Rookie of the Year award to break the tie. 0.5 for 2.

#Indy500 Prediction 3) LESS lead changes than 2013 but MORE than 2012

- VERDICT -- Actually, yes. 2014 had 34 lead changes. 2013 had 64. 2012 had 30 lead changes. I win! 1.5 for 3.

#Indy500 Prediction 4) I'll take Pagenaud, Andretti, and Townsend Bell to win. You get the field.

- VERDICT -- Nope. I feel good about it, though. Picking winners is hard (even if I let myself pick slightly less than 10% of the field...) 1.5 for 4.

Stay Tuned

There's a double-header next weekend, and I can't wait! Be sure that you follow @ScoringIndy on Twitter for blog updates and terrible race predictions. I'll see you on Friday!!

-- Guido