Grand Prix of St. Petersburg 2014
Most Surprising: Simon Pagenaud 60.62 -- This probably shouldn't have been as surprising as it was, but going into the first race of the year, I just wasn't sure that Simon Pagenaud was going to continue on the upward track that he's occupied since coming back full-time to American Open-Wheel racing in 2012. I wasn't impressed by Pagenaud in qualifying. I wasn't terribly impressed with Pagenaud in the race (to be honest). But, Simon found a way to pull it together in his last stint, and outperformed his car to finish P5, and in outperforming his car, Pagenaud wound up with his 60.62 point Race Score. Surprised me for sure.
Least Surprising: Will Power 92.15 -- I hesitate to call a 90+ point Race Score "Least Surprising," since it is so rare to see a score that high. But, I'm putting Power's score here, since (well, since) I called it. I said Power would win, and I felt that he'd be dominant. If I was uncertain about Pagenaud's ability to maintain form, I was pretty certain about Power's ability to recapture it. I wasn't surprised to see Power pace the field, and I wasn't surprised to see him outscore it.
Grand Prix of Long Beach 2014
Most Surprising: Ryan Hunter-Reay 24.19 -- No, I'm not surprised that RHR's score fell below the 45-point mark, the arbitrary line for "good score." No, I'm not surprised that it was nowhere near sniffing the RSWC points. I'm mostly surprised that he scored so many points. A little context is really helpful here. Throughout the whole first part of the race, James Hinchcliffe was riding second to Hunter-Reay. Hinch was taken out in the same accident. Hinch scored 6.20. This shows you the power of leading laps, both for the sake of scoring you points in their own right and improving Average Running Position. It's my formula, and you still surprised me with it. A tip of the hat to Hunter-Reay.
Least Surprising: Mike Conway 78.56 -- First of all, Mike Conway destroys worlds. That is what he does all day long. If Mike Conway were full time, there would be no Chase for my Heart, Mike Conway would be my favorite. But, none of this is why his winning 78.56 is non-surprising. His 78.56 is non-surprising specifically because it is a win in the high 70s. Conway has a talent for "hanging around." That is to say, he gets everything he can out of the car (which is rarely "race winning form") and then stays out of trouble. Conway can finish P14 with a 17th place car, as he did at Barber (17th based on Average Running Position, he qualified 21st), or Conway can take a barely-top-ten car, as he did here, and win the darn thing with a couple of lucky breaks. This was a Mike Conway win. Unsurprising.
Grand Prix of Alabama 2014
Most Surprising: Takuma Sato 25.35 -- When the deluge was falling in Alabama, I said to myself "Takuma Sato is great in the rain. He'll really make a charge." Well, he made a charge, but it was from P23 after spinning and stalling on lap 1. I just don't expect that from a veteran like Sato. Surprised by this.
Least Surprising: Justin Wilson 54.15 -- Justin Wilson is a solid, solid driver. He puts in solid runs. He has the fourth best average score of any driver in the series through three races. So, seeing solid numbers like 54.15 is not at all surprising from Wilson. Although, it does make me wonder what he could do with a top-notch team. That is what I would do if I had a time machine and magical powers (although, I suppose I wouldn't need the time machine with magical powers... never mind.) I would go back to 2011, when the series was dominated by the "Big 3" of Ganassi, Andretti, and Penske and put Justin Wilson in one of those cars. Then, we'd see how much team matters. Although, I don't know how well it would translate to now, since the IR-05 and DW-12 are such different cars. But, I would still do it!
The Chase for my Heart
The Chase rolls on, here is a look at who is left:
| Chaser | LBH (Race Finish) | ALA (A.R.P.) |
| Power | 2 | 3.30 |
| Dixon | 12 | 4.32 |
| Andretti | 8 | 4.51 |
| Pagenaud | 5 | 7.65 |
| Newgarden | 19 | 8.26 |
| Wilson | 16 | 9.00 |
| Kanaan | 18 | 10.96 |
| Bourdais | 14 | 11.97 |
| Briscoe | 17 | 13.68 |
| Castroneves | 11 | 13.83 |
| Munoz | 3 | 13.86 |
| Rahal | 13 | 15.70 |
| Hunter-Reay | 20 | OUT |
| Hinchcliffe | 21 | OUT |
| Sato | 22 | OUT |
| Kimball | 23 | OUT |
And, this weekend we'll cut down to four, by taking the four best Race Scores from the GP of Indy out of: Power, Dixon, Andretti, Pagenaud, Newgarden, Wilson, Kanaan, and Bourdais. Good luck, gentlemen.
Actual GP of Indy Preview
I don't really have that much to say about the Inaugural event. I'm sure I'll have more to say after qualifying (at least four terrible predictions worth...) Here's what I think so far:
- Barber and St. Pete are probably better guides for how the race will play out than Long Beach. There's lots of run-off area, and I don't expect much yellow. So, I think you can expect fast cars to be fast, and good drivers to be good. Some high quality insight right there, I know.
- Also, with the low chance of rain tomorrow in Speedway (at least that's what the internet tells me), I'm not sure how much today's practice and qualifying will tell us about tomorrow's race.
Stay Tuned
Well, that's all I have for today. Sorry there's not more about the upcoming race. There will be next year. I promise. Anyway, follow @ScoringIndy on Twitter for my terrible opinions, blog updates, and atrocious race predictions. See you next time!
-- Guido
No comments:
Post a Comment