A Subjective Opinion
Let me unload this now. I love doubleheader weekends in IndyCar. Love them. And, I think the reason that I love them is because they're on street circuits. As much as we (and I'm including myself here) often lump all the "twisties" together; natural-terrain road courses are a completely different animal than narrow, concrete-enclosed, temporary street circuits.
After the weirdness that was the Toyota Grand Prix of Long Beach this season, Pressdog posted this piece (which he himself referenced in his comments about the race weekend), in which he compared twisty racing to restrictor plate racing in NASCAR. I think that he's about 100% accurate there in his comparison, so go read it. Back? Good. Now, as I say, I agree with Pressdog here, but I think his comparison is EVEN MORE appropriate when you cut the natural-terrain road courses out of it. Road courses have run-off areas. Turns on road courses are often described as "sweeping." Street circuits have walls. And, the only "sweeping" (overstatement alert) on a street circuit is done to clean up debris. Street racing is truly the restrictor plate racing of IndyCar (to make Pressdog's comparison).
And, it is this white-knuckle, take-no-prisoners attitude that street racing takes is what makes them perfect for double-headers in my book. Drivers simply MUST go for it every lap of each race. That is compelling racing. I'm not sure that the double-header format would work on any other kind of circuit, but dang is it good on streets.
A Race in the Wet
Here are the scores from Race 1 (since it was a timed race, I calculated the number of laps completed by the race winner as "full race distance."):
| Finish | Driver | Grid | Led | Completed | A.R.P. | Race Score | RSWC Points |
| 1 | Huertas | 19 | 7 | 80 | 12.98 | 78.32 | 10 |
| 2 | Montoya | 11 | 0 | 80 | 8.64 | 67.19 | 5 |
| 3 | Munoz | 23 | 0 | 80 | 13.34 | 74.87 | 8 |
| 4 | Bourdais | 9 | 0 | 80 | 6.01 | 62.30 | 3 |
| 5 | Hinchcliffe | 5 | 32 | 80 | 3.56 | 70.49 | 6 |
| 6 | Hawksworth | 21 | 0 | 80 | 13.41 | 63.17 | 4 |
| 7 | Hunter-Reay | 8 | 0 | 80 | 6.76 | 51.07 | 2 |
| 8 | Andretti | 16 | 0 | 80 | 15.79 | 46.68 | |
| 9 | Castroneves | 2 | 0 | 80 | 5.78 | 38.01 | |
| 10 | Wilson | 7 | 15 | 80 | 5.38 | 49.18 | 1 |
| 11 | Rahal | 14 | 0 | 80 | 13.15 | 38.91 | |
| 12 | Briscoe | 15 | 0 | 80 | 12.04 | 39.08 | |
| 13 | Kanaan | 22 | 0 | 80 | 12.13 | 46.20 | |
| 14 | Power | 18 | 0 | 79 | 16.00 | 31.67 | |
| 15 | Saavedra | 20 | 0 | 79 | 14.13 | 34.33 | |
| 16 | Pagenaud | 1 | 4 | 74 | 8.81 | 13.39 | |
| 17 | Conway | 17 | 0 | 55 | 15.20 | 18.91 | |
| 18 | Kimball | 13 | 0 | 54 | 13.81 | 13.77 | |
| 19 | Dixon | 3 | 0 | 46 | 7.59 | 7.59 | |
| 20 | Newgarden | 12 | 0 | 41 | 14.00 | 7.28 | |
| 21 | Filippi | 4 | 0 | 36 | 6.00 | 5.00 | |
| 22 | Sato | 6 | 22 | 32 | 1.56 | 10.3 | |
| 23 | Aleshin | 10 | 0 | 31 | 13.26 | 0.18 |
Observations
- I tweeted after the race (the next morning I believe), as I was inputting all the data for my spreadsheets, that "timed races are weird." Please see my reasons why below:
- Dale Coyne Racing scored a surprise winner in Carlos Huertas. And, Huertas' victory is attributable to exactly one thing: strategy. Huertas last stopped on lap 41 of an eventual 80. Huertas only stopped under yellow. Huertas got the yellows that he needed at the end to stretch his fuel. A smart win. A good team win. An overachieving win.
Here's what happened in Race 2:
- Now, what all this says to me is that, even with a sub-standard (although it's a very high standard) weekend, My Australian Overlord, Will Power is having a slap-bang good year. There are seven full-time drivers (including Kanaan, Bourdais, and Briscoe) that haven't cracked a 65 point Race Score all year. That's basically Power's average. He's been good week in and week out.
- Mike Conway has had it rough lately, and the rest of the schedule has been a mixed bag for him in the past. He's looked good at Toronto, but Mid-Ohio and Sonoma haven't always been kind. I expected the #20 Voltron to be closer to that cluster of scores hovering around 40.
- Speaking of those scores clustered around 40, that seems to be the bulge in our particular bell curve. It's hard to put a hard-and-fast number out there and say that "this is what a good drive is" or "this is what a good year is." We've sort of landed on 45 as a good drive, but that's not always exactly right. Do you think Marco Andretti is jumping up and down about his 46.68 in Race 1? (Well, Marco doesn't read my stuff, I'm sure, but even if he did...) He's not. He probably feels like it's too low. Marco probably feels like he could have done better, been better, scored better if he hadn't been shown the blue flag (and then gone through everything that ensued). When some off-weeks come up again, we'll break down these averages. I have lots of stuff to try and pull together before then.
Here's the table for the Race Score World Championship.
- Dale Coyne Racing scored a surprise winner in Carlos Huertas. And, Huertas' victory is attributable to exactly one thing: strategy. Huertas last stopped on lap 41 of an eventual 80. Huertas only stopped under yellow. Huertas got the yellows that he needed at the end to stretch his fuel. A smart win. A good team win. An overachieving win.
- This should be your example race for why Race Scores matter. Look at the three best race scores: 1) Huertas -- see above. 2) Munoz -- started dead last, landed on the podium. 3) Hinchcliffe -- dominated long stretches of race, but pitted "too late" to make up the track position he lost to the three Colombians on the podium, who played the clock better than he did. Just looking at the stats page on IndyCar's website, or the official box score, you would be unlikely to pick those three out as the best drives, but I promise you that they are.
- Finally, a word of lament about the early end to the day for Takuma Sato. Sato proved that his "good in the wet" moniker isn't just code for "raced in F1 for a while, right?" He dominated the early part of this race and his take-out put a tear in my eye.
- Finally, a word of lament about the early end to the day for Takuma Sato. Sato proved that his "good in the wet" moniker isn't just code for "raced in F1 for a while, right?" He dominated the early part of this race and his take-out put a tear in my eye.
A Race in the Dry
Here's what happened in Race 2:
| Finish | Driver | Grid | Led | Completed | A.R.P. | Race Score | RSWC Points |
| 1 | Pagenaud | 3 | 43 | 90 | 1.52 | 84.73 | 10 |
| 2 | Aleshin | 2 | 0 | 90 | 6.63 | 57.05 | 3 |
| 3 | Hawksworth | 23 | 0 | 90 | 12.74 | 75.73 | 8 |
| 4 | Kimball | 19 | 0 | 90 | 9.86 | 71.22 | 6 |
| 5 | Bourdais | 5 | 0 | 90 | 6.02 | 53.59 | 1 |
| 6 | Hunter-Reay | 21 | 0 | 90 | 12.82 | 64.03 | 5 |
| 7 | Montoya | 14 | 0 | 90 | 7.34 | 58.92 | 4 |
| 8 | Briscoe | 15 | 0 | 90 | 12.60 | 49.86 | |
| 9 | Andretti | 16 | 0 | 90 | 9.92 | 52.29 | |
| 10 | Kanaan | 8 | 0 | 90 | 9.36 | 38.62 | |
| 11 | Power | 18 | 0 | 90 | 5.66 | 55.57 | 2 |
| 12 | Wilson | 6 | 0 | 89 | 11.09 | 27.29 | |
| 13 | Conway | 17 | 0 | 89 | 17.57 | 30.89 | |
| 14 | Hinchcliffe | 7 | 0 | 89 | 11.46 | 22.43 | |
| 15 | Filippi | 12 | 0 | 88 | 11.39 | 26.67 | |
| 16 | Rahal | 4 | 0 | 87 | 13.11 | 10.03 | |
| 17 | Saavedra | 20 | 0 | 84 | 19.94 | 19.69 | |
| 18 | Dixon | 11 | 0 | 78 | 17.51 | 8.05 | |
| 19 | Sato | 10 | 0 | 74 | 11.34 | 11.61 | |
| 20 | Newgarden | 22 | 0 | 61 | 15.80 | 15.81 | |
| 21 | Castroneves | 1 | 47 | 48 | 1.02 | 15.93 | |
| 22 | Munoz | 9 | 0 | 40 | 8.85 | 4.28 | |
| 23 | Huertas | 13 | 0 | 2 | 18.50 | 1.30 |
Observations
- That's a little let weird. The 90-lap format was clearly a little closer to the strategical wheelhouse of teams than was the hour and fifty minute format. Just look at the Average Running Position of the Top 5 in each race: Race 1 -- 12.98; 8.64; 13.34; 6.01; 3.56 Race 2 -- 1.52; 6.63; 12.74; 9.86; 6.02. One of those seems like it's int he right order, and it isn't Race 1.
- I find it terribly interesting that Aleshin, dead last in Race 1, finished P2 in Race 2; whereas Huertas, winner in Race 1, finished dead last in Race 2. Unpredictability reigns! See "A Subjective Opinion" above.
- A really solid weekend for Sebastien Bourdais. He could have been even better in Race 2, but was bitten by wing damage. This track suits him. I like to see Bourdais do well. It validates him to be competitive in a competitive series.
- Finally, Juan Pablo Montoya is figuring this thing out. If I had to make a pick for Pocono right now...
Hall of Averages
- I find it terribly interesting that Aleshin, dead last in Race 1, finished P2 in Race 2; whereas Huertas, winner in Race 1, finished dead last in Race 2. Unpredictability reigns! See "A Subjective Opinion" above.
- A really solid weekend for Sebastien Bourdais. He could have been even better in Race 2, but was bitten by wing damage. This track suits him. I like to see Bourdais do well. It validates him to be competitive in a competitive series.
- Finally, Juan Pablo Montoya is figuring this thing out. If I had to make a pick for Pocono right now...
Hall of Averages
Let's take a dip in the median end of the pool and look at how all the full-time drivers have done on average to this point in the season:
| Driver | Average Score |
| Power | 64.94 |
| Hunter-Reay | 51.76 |
| Castroneves | 50.78 |
| Pagenaud | 48.69 |
| Kanaan | 41.62 |
| Montoya | 41.45 |
| Kimball | 39.98 |
| Wison | 39.51 |
| Dixon | 39.11 |
| Andretti | 38.76 |
| Briscoe | 37.16 |
| Hawksworth | 34.04 |
| Bourdais | 33.79 |
| Huertas | 33.58 |
| Munoz | 33.36 |
| Aleshin | 31.21 |
| Hinchcliffe | 29.63 |
| Rahal | 27.33 |
| Saavedra | 25.95 |
| Sato | 21.83 |
| Newgarden | 19.42 |
And, the part-timers
| Driver | Average Score | Races |
| Karam | 65.51 | 1 |
| Hildebrand | 48.16 | 1 |
| Carpenter | 47.62 | 2 |
| Tagliani | 45.08 | 1 |
| Villeneuve | 43.73 | 1 |
| Davison | 41.47 | 1 |
| Servia | 40.23 | 4 |
| Bell | 31.26 | 1 |
| Conway | 28.23 | 8 |
| Plowman | 25.36 | 2 |
| Filippi | 15.83 | 2 |
| Mann | 14.76 | 1 |
| Montagny | 12.75 | 1 |
| Lazier | 4.15 | 1 |
In case you're curious about the Conway-Carpenter Voltron.
| Driver | Average Score |
| The 20 Car | 32.11 |
- Now, what all this says to me is that, even with a sub-standard (although it's a very high standard) weekend, My Australian Overlord, Will Power is having a slap-bang good year. There are seven full-time drivers (including Kanaan, Bourdais, and Briscoe) that haven't cracked a 65 point Race Score all year. That's basically Power's average. He's been good week in and week out.
- Mike Conway has had it rough lately, and the rest of the schedule has been a mixed bag for him in the past. He's looked good at Toronto, but Mid-Ohio and Sonoma haven't always been kind. I expected the #20 Voltron to be closer to that cluster of scores hovering around 40.
- Speaking of those scores clustered around 40, that seems to be the bulge in our particular bell curve. It's hard to put a hard-and-fast number out there and say that "this is what a good drive is" or "this is what a good year is." We've sort of landed on 45 as a good drive, but that's not always exactly right. Do you think Marco Andretti is jumping up and down about his 46.68 in Race 1? (Well, Marco doesn't read my stuff, I'm sure, but even if he did...) He's not. He probably feels like it's too low. Marco probably feels like he could have done better, been better, scored better if he hadn't been shown the blue flag (and then gone through everything that ensued). When some off-weeks come up again, we'll break down these averages. I have lots of stuff to try and pull together before then.
RSWC Update
Here's the table for the Race Score World Championship.
| Driver | Points | Difference |
| Power | 45 | -- |
| Castroneves | 43 | -2 |
| Hunter-Reay | 41 | -4 |
| Pagenaud | 31 | -14 |
| Montoya | 25 | -20 |
| Kimball | 23 | -22 |
| Dixon | 22 | -23 |
| Munoz | 17 | -28 |
| Wilson | 15 | -30 |
| Hawksworth | 15 | -30 |
| Andretti | 14 | -31 |
| Aleshin | 14 | -31 |
| Hinchcliffe | 14 | -31 |
| Huertas | 12 | -33 |
| Conway | 10 | -35 |
| Carpenter | 10 | -35 |
| Bourdais | 10 | -35 |
| Kanaan | 9 | -36 |
| Rahal | 8 | -37 |
| Karam | 5 | -40 |
| Saavedra | 3 | -42 |
| Briscoe | 3 | -42 |
| Newgarden | 2 | -43 |
| Servia | 2 | -43 |
| Sato | 1 | -44 |
| Busch | 1 | -44 |
- The top doesn't really change much. Castroneves, Hunter-Reay, and Power at the top. Pagenaud is still a race or so away from insinuating himself into the conversation.
- Speaking of insinuating himself, Juan Pablo Montoya is on the move. I know I said it earlier, but I'd like him if I had to make a call for Pocono now.
- This is also deserving of more attention, but alas, I will let it go for now to bring you my:
Prediction Recap
#GPHOU Prediction 1) Filippi keeps it in the Top 5. (I'll give it either finish or Average Running Position).
VERDICT -- Off by 1. 6.00 ARP. 0 for 1.
#GPHOU Prediction 2) I'll take Pagenaud and Wilson to win.
VERDICT -- Wrong race and not enough fuel. 0 for 2.
#GPHOU Prediction 3) Filippi finishes this time, and does so Top 8.
VERDICT -- My faith in my paisano burns me again. 0 for 3.
#GPHOU Prediction 4) Give me Rahal and Bourdais as Race 2 winners.
VERDICT -- Good run for Bourdais, and bad luck for Rahal. 0 for 4.
Stay Tuned
Well, that's all the trouble I'm going to cause for now. My Pocono preview will go up on Friday, and we'll be rolling on another IndyCar race weekend. Be sure to follow me @ScoringIndy on Twitter for updates and predictions. I'll see you then!
-- Guido
