Detroit 2016 Mega-Post

Hey there, Internet!! I'm just hanging out here while they dry the track at Texas Motor Speedway, and I've got most of the running positions calculated for last weekend's Chevrolet Dual in Detroit. So, I'm gonna get this write up finished, and we'll all enjoy it together during the Firestone 600 tonight. Let's get to it!


Race 1 Scorecard

Finish	Driver	Grid	Led	Completed	A.R.P.	Race Score
1	Bourdais	13	12	70	9.36	77.90
2	Daly	16	4	70	10.33	74.13
3	Montoya	3	13	70	3.07	66.69
4	Rahal	10	0	70	5.90	63.79
5	Castroneves	2	0	70	4.91	50.13
6	Munoz	5	0	70	7.29	48.05
7	Hunter-Reay	15	0	70	11.73	53.44
8	Kimball	6	0	70	10.21	39.07
9	Kanaan	7	0	70	10.31	37.40
10	Rossi	17	0	70	14.66	42.94
11	Sato	11	0	70	14.00	31.82
12	Chaves	20	0	70	16.10	39.24
13	Pagenaud	1	35	70	3.93	42.53
14	Newgarden	14	0	70	12.71	29.22
15	Aleshin	12	0	70	11.51	24.98
16	Andretti	19	0	69	16.06	25.45
17	Pigot	21	0	69	18.20	22.23
18	Hinchcliffe	4	0	65	9.95	6.23
19	Dixon	6	1	56	8.36	8.43
20	Power	9	5	44	3.68	13.96
21	Chilton	18	0	8	12.25	4.37
22	Hawksworth	22	0	0	22.00	1.52

Race 1 Quick Hits

- "Dale Coyne is the Napoleon of Race Strategy" is this year's "Mike Conway is a Destroyer of Worlds." Perhaps I just like to make outlandish statements, but I think this one's true. Coyne is able to make chicken salad out of chicken feet, just as long as he gets a little bit of help. In Race 1, he got Conor Daly onto the podium with the yellows falling right (and an Average Running Position greater than 10). In previous years, he's won races with the likes of Carlos Huertas and the aforementioned Mike Conway: Destroyer of Worlds. He puts his drivers in position to win. Solid work Dale.

- Big credit to Ryan Hunter-Reay for posting a score of 53.44 from P7. It seems to me that 53.44 is a good score for that spot. Maybe I should try and figure out a "par" score for each position. I could make a formula for that...

- Finally, let's mention Sebastien Bourdais. Bourdais has never had a good ride. A Newman-Hass was certainly the ride to have in CART in 2004, but no heavy hitting teams were still in CART in 2004. And, Bourdais made the best of it, winning like a million races from 2003-07 in CART. But, after reunification, he's had the following rides: 2011 part time for Dale Coyne; 2012-13 Dragon Racing (during which he managed a top 10 under Lotus power, remember those engines?); 2014-Present at KV, where he has managed the organizations only wins without an asterisk (other than Tony Kanaan's Indy 500 win in 2013). Imagine what he could do in a decent car.

- OK, I'm gonna go crunch some more numbers and get back with Race 2.


Race 2 Scorecard

Did you miss me? Here it is:

Finish	Driver	Grid	Led	Completed	A.R.P.	Race Score
1	Power	8	10	70	5.09	75.84
2	Pagenaud	1	40	70	2.01	81.15
3	Hunter-Reay	2	0	70	3.76	57.94
4	Newgarden	17	0	70	8.34	70.69
5	Dixon	4	0	70	7.36	49.46
6	Daly	21	0	70	11.13	66.47
7	Kanaan	6	0	70	7.97	45.50
8	Bourdais	12	8	70	7.33	56.34
9	Andretti	22	0	70	15.2	52.73
10	Sato	16	0	70	14.14	42.21
11	Rahal	7	1	70	12.04	29.20
12	Rossi	18	1	70	14.26	39.48
13	Chaves	13	0	70	15.53	26.47
14	Castroneves	3	10	70	6.20	27.19
15	Munoz	13	0	70	12.66	24.76
16	Kimball	11	0	70	9.13	24.05
17	Aleshin	5	0	70	11.99	7.60
18	Pigot	20	0	67	14.72	22.49
19	Hawksworth	9	0	48	15.75	3.20
20	Montoya	10	0	33	7.94	8.16
21	Hinchcliffe	14	0	0	21.00	3.03
22	Chilton	19	0	0	22.00	1.52

Race 2 Quick Hits

- Two particular fascinations of mine have coalesced back in P18. I wonder what the "par score" for P18 in this race would be. I also think Spencer Pigot's Race Score is better than that par score would be. I'm really gonna have to figure this out. Maybe I'll use my free week after recapping Texas (still hasn't started, for those playing the home game) and before Road America (which is 3 hours from my house and I won't be at, grumble grumble....) to try and figure that out.

- Back to the front of the pack: My Australian Overlord, Will Power actually won a race! Interesting fact. Ever since he won the Chase for My Heart last year, Will Power has been winless. I was beginning to think that I was a jinx. OK, I wasn't beginning to think it. I know I'm a jinx. My teams never win. Just ask my wife, she's the one who developed the theory. Well, JINX BROKEN. Power wins it. Good strategy. Good pass on Pagenaud. Good racing.

- Speaking of Pagenaud, how impressive is this guy?!?! In 140 total laps on Belle Isle he led 75 of them. 75!! That's more than one full race. Of course, it doesn't matter if you lead 138 laps at Belle Isle if you don't lead Lap 70 of each race. Pagenaud didn't, and he failed to achieve the top step of the podium. However, if Race Scores are measures of how happy a driver should be with their day, Pagenaud should be the happiest after Race 2. He scores an 81.15 to Power's 75.84.

- Conor Daly with a monster day again. Finishing P6 after starting P21. Ran 11.13, and finished a full 5 spots better than that. Coyne + Conor = Gold.


Bonus Content

Well, the track is still being dried. I've switched to watching soccer. (Costa Rica is HANDING Group A in Copa America to the USA.) I'll be back, IndyCar. But, I just had a crazy idea. The Dual in Detroit, is a two-event weekend. What if someone with a spreadsheet (like this guy) aggregated everyone's performance over the two events? That could be cool. And, it'll keep me busy while this soccer game happens. (Columbia has drawn within 1, this could be bad for USA.) Let's see if anything interesting comes up.

Here's the ranking of everyone's Average Race Score from the two events at the Dual in Detroit:

Driver	Mean
Daly	70.30
Bourdais	67.12
Pagenaud	61.84
Hunter-Reay	55.69
Newgarden	49.96
Rahal	46.49
Power	44.90
Kanaan	41.45
Rossi	41.21
Andretti	40.90
Castroneves	38.66
Montoya	37.42
Sato	37.01
Munoz	36.41
Chaves	32.86
Kimball	31.56
Dixon	28.95
Aleshin	24.51
Pigot	22.36
Hinchcliffe	4.63
Chilton	2.94
Hawksworth	2.36

NB: I labeled the averages "mean" because I learned that word in math class and it makes me sound smart. I also label my notes "NB" because I learned that means something in Latin and it also makes me sound smart. Also, it is late. I'm now watching IndyCar Chronicles, because we're still drying the track at Texas. Anyway, here are some Quick Hits:

- OBVIOUSLY the best weekend goes to Conor Daly. I mean, wow.

- Hunter-Reay, Newgarden, and Rahal were all surprisingly good, in my opinion. I don't remember them spending tons of time in the discussion. But, I'll have to watch again with an eye to those three.

- OK, I'm tired; the race isn't happening tonight; I'm turning in.

Stay Tuned

I basically said it all up there. I'm looking forward to channel-surfing all the racing tomorrow. I should also be constantly tweeting the action on the track and the action on my remote, so give a follow @ScoringIndy and we'll have a good time together.

See you out there,

-- Guido