Friday, March 22, 2013

The Ghost of St. Pete Past

Hello Internet! This week we look back at the IndyCar race at St. Petersburg last year, by breaking down the Race Scores from that race. We'll also look ahead to this week's season opener in St. Pete by looking at the differences between this year's race and last. Plus, I'll be unveiling the way that Scoring Indy will be quantifying season-long performance for the 2013 IndyCar season.

St. Pete 2012

I don't think I'll ever forget the picture of Helio slapping the "Dan Wheldon Way" sign. It went a long way toward healing for me. But, that's a lot of feelings, and this blog is about numbers, data, and performance. So, here is the carnival of data from last year's St. Pete Grand Prix:


Race Finish Driver Starting Position Laps Led Laps Completed Race Score
1 Castroneves 5 28 100 71.69
2 Dixon 6 37 100 74.27
3 Hunter-Reay 3 0 100 46.15
4 Hinchcliffe 4 0 100 44.23
5 Briscoe 2 9 100 41.04
6 Pagenaud 16 0 100 59.62
7 Power 1 11 100 32.42
8 Viso 12 0 100 44.23
9 Kimball 22 0 100 59.62
10 Wilson 15 0 100 42.31
11 Newgarten 19 0 100 46.15
12 Rahal 10 0 100 25.00
13 Franchitti 9 1 100 19.73
14 Andretti 7 0 99 11.67
15 Tagliani 17 0 99 26.88
16 Servia 23 0 99 34.48
17 Barichello 13 0 98 11.69
18 Carpenter 24 0 98 28.62
19 Hildebrand 18 3 96 14.98
20 Conway 11 0 75 0.48
21 Bourdais 26 0 73 18.56
22 Sato 14 11 73 2.40
23 Legge 25 0 59 9.96
24 de Silvestro 21 0 22 4.50
25 Kanaan 8 0 21 -3.02
26 Jakes 20 0 19 -0.27

Observations from last year's race:

- The Race Score Podium: 1) Dixon: 74.27; 2) Castroneves: 71.69; 3) Pagenaud 59.62

- Comments about those three drives. Dixon winds up on the first step of our podium, despite finishing last year's season opener in second. This is explained in the algorithm by his having gained the same number of positions as Helio and then leading nine more laps. Castroneves finishes just about two and a half points behind Dixon, and the discrepancy in laps led seems to be more of  a quirk of strategy than anything. Pagenaud started off his Rookie of the Year campaign by jumping up from P16 to P6, and snagging the third spot without even leading a lap.

- A quick comment about this system as a whole. Last year's St. Pete race is what made me keep at this little experiment of mine, when I was compiling all the data from last year's IndyCar series. The thought that the guy that finished second might have had a better drive than the guy who finished first and the idea that P6 actually performed better than the drivers in P3-P5 is just fascinating to me.

St. Pete 2013

Here's what will make things at this year's St. Pete GP slightly different:

- There are more laps (110 not 100), so each lap led will count for less.

- There is one less entry, so each finishing position and position gained or loss will count for more.

- There are no more Lotus engines, so a fifth of the field no longer has anchors on their cars. Expect a better day specifically for drivers whose names rhyme with Bebastien Soudais.

Race Score World Championship

So, here's what I'm going to be doing here at Scoring Indy for this year's IndyCar season. I'm going to track performance by drivers across the season with a system I'm calling the Race Score World Championship. Basically, I'm taking the top 10 Race Scores (Aggregate Race Scores for weeks with grid penalties) and awarding them Formula 1 style points. I'm doing this because I can, and also I want to do it because (looking at last year's Race Scores) I find that between 8-12 drivers have "good" races on any given week. So, look at the end of each IndyCar update for standings in the RSWC.

That's all I've got for now. Expect next week to be spotty, as it is Holy Week, and I won't have too much time for racing. Hopefully, I'll get St. Pete scores up as soon as I see a box score.

Let's go racing,

--Guido

PS The numbers in the above "carnival of data" come from indycar.com/stats

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