Friday, July 19, 2013

The Race Score World Championship

Hello Internet! Here is the promised Race Score World Championship post. I realize that I haven't talked much about my little experiment, since its inception, other than to update the standings each week. So, this week we're going deep with the RSWC, starting from the beginning. So strap yourselves in. We're going on a ride.


RSWC Genesis

The idea for the RSWC goes all the way back to my pre-blog experimenting with numbers and IndyCar racing and quantifying performance. When I was pondering whether or not I wanted to internet-ify this whole "Race Score" concept of mine, I wondered what good it would be other than the basic stated purpose of looking race by race. So, I determined that I should put together some kind of season-long scoring system. 

The problem was that the bottom half of the grid, after I would calculate the Race Scores, looked like a mess. Take, for example at St. Pete (which used the Old Formula): JR Hildebrand scored 21.09. Will Power scored 2.31. Hildebrand only finished 78 laps, and came home in P19. Power got through 107 of the 110 laps, led 26 of them, and finished ahead of Hildebrand in P16. If I had used a scoring system that scored the whole field, then I would have totally shafted Power. So, I determined that I should use a scoring system that only awarded points to some of the field. I decided that there was no reason to re-invent the wheel, so I imported the scoring system from Formula 1.

Now, I think that a lot of the problems with the Old Formula that led me to use this system are corrected by the use of the New Formula, but I kinda like the idea of the way that the scoring system is set up now...

So, let's take a look at how the RSWC has gone so far:


The RSWC Table (in Technicolor!)



DriverSTPBARLBHSAOINDYDET1DET2TXSMILIOWAPOCTOR1TOR2Total
Castroneves25182810252521618140
Dixon1810812106252525139
Hunter-Reay251818151518109
Andretti841515156101612496
Kanaan10125141815478
Sato252581876
Franchitti6615481815274
Pagenaud1211210258472
Conway2518101265
Hinchcliffe1286425863
Wison218615210659
Newgarden15188212156
Kimball8621215851
Bourdais62181541
Viso151241041
Carpenter1121122129
Power64110829
Servia1010626
Rahal12211025
Munoz1212
de Silvestro2428
Jakes88
Tagliani4217
Allmendinger44
Hildebrand44
Briscoe11

As you can see: P1 is in Blue, P2 in Red, P3 in Purple, and P4-10 in Green.


Observations

- The class of the field right now are: Castroneves, Dixon, Hunter-Reay, and Marco Andretti. It's been that way almost all year. Dixon fell off a bit in the middle, and the Andretti Autosport duo of Hunter-Reay and Andretti could make a push if they could only catch a break.

- There's a big logjam of drivers with between 50 and 80 points just begging to sort itself out over the end stretch of the season.

- I wonder about Alex Tagliani. He seems to have gotten burned by the New Formula. He hasn't run very hot by and large either...

- Each of the following observations are a little bigger. So, each will be the focus of a brief post during IndyCar's run of open weeks between now and Sonoma. (Yes, Mid-Ohio's in there too, and it will get the full preview/recap treatment. I didn't forget.)

1) If a driver had gotten max points up to this point, that driver would have 325 points. Our RSWC leader: Helio Castroneves has received 43.08% of max points. Interestingly, Mike Conway has received exactly 20% of max points. I think there's something to the idea of 20% of max points being a demarcation point for having a very good season. I'm calling it the "Conway Line."

2) I'm interested in looking at performance of teams on the whole. A "Team Race Score World Championship" if you will. I don't know if that will tell us much, but I'm interested in doing it. I will probably do it by tiers. Those tiers will probably be: Ganassi, Penske, Andretti -- Tier 1; Other 2 car teams -- Tier 2; Single car teams -- Tier 3.

3) The last observation for inquiry that I'm going to do between now and Sonoma is going to be devoted to looking a three or four seasons to-this-point; telling the story of how those drivers got to where they are in the RSWC; and putting together some statistical pictures and analysis.

So, here's the upcoming schedule here at Scoring Indy:

- July 26: An exploration of "The Conway Line"

- August 2: Mid-Ohio Preview

- August 5-7: Mid-Ohio Recap and Scores

- August 9: The Team Race Score World Championship

- August 16: 3-4 Season Snapshots

- August 23: Sonoma Preview

Looks like we'll be having a lot of fun! I'm excited, and I hope you are too.

-- Guido

PS I was able to make the spreadsheet look prettier than my normal Race Score Spreadsheets by using a Google sheet instead of making it in Office. I'm not sure how I feel about doing "pretty" sheets full time. I already turn around recaps slowly, but I will probably keep this for the RSWC.

2 comments:

  1. As I basically mentioned on Twitter the other day, I am totally in love with the RSWC. Like, as in, I want to give it a big old nerd kiss right on the lips and maybe start daydreaming about finding an lake cottage in which to spend a long Shiraz and Excel-filled weekend with.

    Semi-disturbing imagery aside, I think it does a fantastic job of telling the season's story to date. Helio and Dixon have been great all year long, with strong finish after strong finish (only 2 non-RSWC points finishes for Helio, only 3 for Dixon). RHR and Andretti have been more hit-and-miss (6 podiums for RHR and the rest all non-points finishes; Marco racking up mid-range points all year). TK, Sato, Dario and Pagenaud all have had periods of brilliance but no consistency. Conway...is a galaxy unto his own. Hinch is basically a blazing hot or freezing cold enigma. Wilson, Newgarden and Kimball are punching above their weight. Bourdais and Viso: a couple great weekends for both but mid-pack anonymity for the balance of the season. Carpenter: good on the ovals and no longer cover-your-eyes-bad on the roads and streets. Power: a complete and utter catastrophe (single handedly submarining my own super nerdy All Racing Fantasy League prospects, by taking him over Sebastian Vettel in the second round of the draft...which is really my own fault...it felt super risky in the moment). Servia doing OK in an abbreviated season. Graham's couple of fast flashes and the rest being irrelevance. Everything I've felt in my gut for the season is right there in glorious, glorious numbers.

    Anyway, I gush too much. Great stuff, Dom, and I'm looking forward to the rest of the season, both on the track and here. Thanks for doing all of this work for us super-duper geeks to dine on. This is fun.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks for the comment, Andy! I'm glad that you are getting as much out of the RSWC as I am! Makes it worthwhile.

      Also, bad break picking Power over Vettel...

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