Hello Internet! Scoring Indy comes back at you this week the first official look at the new formula. During May, leading up to the 500, we will be rolling out what the Race Scores would have looked like if we had used the New Formula way back when. So, we begin at the beginning: with St. Pete.
You can go and check out the post, where the New Formula was first previewed here. There you'll see the explanation of what the New Formula does (It's called "Formula A" there). Basically, it adds average running position (scaled based on percentage of race finished) as a factor together with race finish and positions gained.
On to the data!!!
Then
First, here's what we had before:
| Race Finish | Driver | Grid | Laps Led | Laps Completed | Race Score |
| | | | | |
| 1 | Hinchcliffe | 4 | 26 | 110 | 67.82 |
| 2 | Castroneves | 5 | 42 | 110 | 73.09 |
| 3 | Andretti | 7 | 0 | 110 | 54.00 |
| 4 | Kanaan | 11 | 0 | 110 | 58.00 |
| 5 | Dixon | 20 | 0 | 110 | 72.00 |
| 6 | de Silvestro | 3 | 0 | 110 | 34.00 |
| 7 | Viso | 22 | 0 | 110 | 68.00 |
| 8 | Sato | 2 | 0 | 110 | 24.00 |
| 9 | Wilson | 13 | 0 | 110 | 42.00 |
| 10 | Tagliani | 17 | 0 | 110 | 46.00 |
| 11 | Bourdais | 21 | 0 | 110 | 50.00 |
| 12 | Kimball | 14 | 0 | 110 | 32.00 |
| 13 | Rahal | 15 | 0 | 110 | 30.00 |
| 14 | Carpenter | 23 | 0 | 110 | 42.00 |
| 15 | Jakes | 18 | 0 | 110 | 28.00 |
| 16 | Power | 1 | 26 | 107 | 2.31 |
| 17 | Servia | 12 | 16 | 104 | 15.42 |
| 18 | Hunter-Reay | 8 | 0 | 79 | 1.64 |
| 19 | Hildebrand | 24 | 0 | 78 | 21.09 |
| 20 | Saavedra | 9 | 0 | 72 | -2.40 |
| 21 | Vautier | 6 | 0 | 69 | -8.82 |
| 22 | Beatriz | 25 | 0 | 55 | 11.00 |
| 23 | Newgarden | 16 | 0 | 50 | -0.36 |
| 24 | Pagenaud | 19 | 0 | 26 | 1.64 |
| 25 | Franchitti | 10 | 0 | 18 | -2.91 |
- So, that means that the Top Ten Race Scores were (in order): Castroneves, Dixon, Viso, Hinchcliffe, Kanaan, Andretti, Bourdais, Tagliani, Willson, Carpenter.
- My gripes, based on seeing the race, are that Hinch got robbed of the Race Score Podium and that Simona scored zero Race Score World Championship points.
- The gripes are based on "Eyeball Testing" the race. I thought that Hinchcliffe just had a better run than Viso did. Now, Viso gained BIG TIME positions. This IS to be rewarded. The reason that Scoring Indy exists is my insatiable urge to determine who had the best race. I think Viso's race was very good, better than his finish indicated for sure. I just wasn't sure it was the third best.
Now
Here's how the new formula shook things up:
| Race
Finish |
Driver |
Grid |
Led |
Completed |
Race Score |
R.S. Standings |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
Hinchcliffe |
4 |
26 |
110 |
76.73 |
2 |
| 2 |
Castroneves |
5 |
42 |
110 |
80.82 |
1 |
| 3 |
Andretti |
7 |
0 |
110 |
61.28 |
6 |
| 4 |
Kanaan |
11 |
0 |
110 |
64.92 |
4 |
| 5 |
Dixon |
20 |
0 |
110 |
69.73 |
3 |
| 6 |
de Silvestro |
3 |
0 |
110 |
51.54 |
7 |
| 7 |
Viso |
22 |
0 |
110 |
61.64 |
5 |
| 8 |
Sato |
2 |
0 |
110 |
39.92 |
12 |
| 9 |
Wilson |
13 |
0 |
110 |
49.20 |
8 |
| 10 |
Tagliani |
17 |
0 |
110 |
47.01 |
10 |
| 11 |
Bourdais |
21 |
0 |
110 |
47.94 |
9 |
| 12 |
Kimball |
14 |
0 |
110 |
35.24 |
13 |
| 13 |
Rahal |
15 |
0 |
110 |
34.10 |
14 |
| 14 |
Carpenter |
23 |
0 |
110 |
39.98 |
11 |
| 15 |
Jakes |
18 |
0 |
110 |
33.01 |
15 |
| 16 |
Power |
1 |
26 |
107 |
28.55 |
16 |
| 17 |
Servia |
12 |
16 |
104 |
24.92 |
17 |
| 18 |
Hunter-Reay |
8 |
0 |
79 |
14.16 |
19 |
| 19 |
Hildebrand |
24 |
0 |
78 |
19.09 |
18 |
| 20 |
Saavedra |
9 |
0 |
72 |
8.21 |
22 |
| 21 |
Vautier |
6 |
0 |
69 |
10.93 |
20 |
| 22 |
Beatriz |
25 |
0 |
55 |
8.92 |
21 |
| 23 |
Newgarden |
16 |
0 |
50 |
7.75 |
23 |
| 24 |
Pagenaud |
19 |
0 |
26 |
2.74 |
24 |
| 25 |
Franchitti |
10 |
0 |
18 |
1.27 |
25 |
- Based on the jumbled up Race Score Standings on the right, you can see that the Top Ten Race Scores were (in order): Castroneves, Hinchcliffe, Dixon, Kanaan, Viso, Andretti, de Silvestro, Wilson, Bourdais, and Tagliani.
- If you compare the two Top Tens, you see that this is really just a re-shuffle (with the exception of Simona de Silvestro replacing Ed Carpenter on the list.)
- But, what a re-shuffle it is! The addition of average running position knocks Viso down to a well-deserved fifth, which I think is the sweet spot for the run that he had. Simona jumps from eleventh to seventh. That's perfect, because he run was superb. Hinchcliffe jumps from fourth to second, which is more like it as well.
- Note also, the benchmark of "35 is good" will need to be changed. I think will wind up being something like "45 is good" but I'm willing to adjust that as we go forward and re-score the whole season up to now.
Well, that's all I've got for today. Hope you enjoyed the look at what would have been (and what will be going forward)!
-- Guido
Hello Internet! That's right. Sao Paulo is now in the rear-view mirror, and we can begin the Month of May in earnest. But, before we get all goofy about IndyCars just turning left, let's look back at what happened in Brazil yesterday.
Sao Paulo Results:
Here's the data jamboree:
| Race
Finish |
Driver |
Qualifying |
Grid |
Laps Led |
Laps Completed |
A.R.S. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
Hinchcliffe |
5 |
5 |
1 |
75 |
58.67 |
| 2 |
Sato |
12 |
12 |
22 |
75 |
82.67 |
| 3 |
Andretti |
10 |
10 |
7 |
75 |
64.67 |
| 4 |
Servia |
13 |
13 |
0 |
75 |
62.00 |
| 5 |
Newgarden |
23 |
25 |
0 |
75 |
80.00 |
| 6 |
Viso |
2 |
2 |
0 |
75 |
32.00 |
| 7 |
Franchitti |
3 |
3 |
0 |
75 |
30.00 |
| 8 |
de Silvestro |
8 |
8 |
0 |
75 |
36.00 |
| 9 |
Pagenaud |
24 |
23 |
0 |
75 |
63.00 |
| 10 |
Kimball |
17 |
17 |
0 |
75 |
46.00 |
| 11 |
Hunter-Reay |
1 |
1 |
16 |
75 |
20.67 |
| 12 |
Tagliani |
15 |
15 |
0 |
75 |
34.00 |
| 13 |
Castroneves |
18 |
18 |
0 |
75 |
36.00 |
| 14 |
Bourdais |
7 |
7 |
13 |
75 |
18.67 |
| 15 |
Hildebrand |
11 |
11 |
4 |
75 |
16.67 |
| 16 |
Vautier |
21 |
21 |
0 |
75 |
30.00 |
| 17 |
Jakes |
25 |
24 |
0 |
75 |
33.00 |
| 18 |
Dixon |
6 |
6 |
0 |
75 |
-8.00 |
| 19 |
Saavadra |
20 |
20 |
0 |
75 |
16.00 |
| 20 |
Wilson |
9 |
9 |
0 |
73 |
-9.41 |
| 21 |
Kanaan |
4 |
4 |
12 |
72 |
-14.96 |
| 22 |
Rahal |
19 |
19 |
0 |
71 |
2.32 |
| 23 |
Carpenter |
14 |
14 |
0 |
71 |
-11.04 |
| 24 |
Power |
22 |
22 |
0 |
17 |
3.09 |
| 25 |
Beatriz |
16 |
16 |
0 |
6 |
0.56 |
Observations and Prediction Review:
- First observation, is that I did not observe the race (or qualifying or anything). I was at a denominational meeting, as I said on Friday. So, anything I know comes from sneaking looks at timing and scoring between sessions. So, I can't say how anyone performed until I actually watch, which I will do on YouTube at some point today.
- Second observation is that, like Long Beach, there's a lot of shuffle that happens between qualifying and race. Interesting, was it the fact that passing is possible at Brazil, or strategy? I guess I'll find out when I watch...
- Ok, enough of me talking about how I didn't see it yet. Here's the prediction review:
- #IndySaoPaulo Prediction 1) Will Power outscores the race winner. Verdict: Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. Did Power's car catch on fire? I thought I saw on Twitter that it was on fire. He certainly had the car to do it (based on T&S), and Hinch scored under 60. I was on the right track, but sadly power only ran 17 of 75 laps. Hard to outscore anyone when you do that...
- #IndySaoPaulo Prediction 2) Oriol Servia Top 10s (finish not Race Score) or crashes out. Verdict: Boom, Baby! Now, I gave myself some wiggle room here. But, I figured that the DRR team would come out and go for broke (no pun intended). P4 in the race. P5 A.R.S. Good on you, Oriol! Someone sponsor this guy!!
- #IndySaoPaulo Prediction 3) James Hinchcliffe becomes the first repeat winner of 2013. Verdict: He's heating up! I can't wait to see that pass for the win. You've done me proud, Hinch. You've done me proud.
- #IndySaoPaulo Prediction 4) Castoneves currently leads the RSWC by 7. It will be less after this weekend. Verdict: He's On Fire!! Castroneves currently leads the RSWC by -5. That's right, with an incredible drive, Takuma Sato goes to the front of the RSWC. Which, brings us to...
Race Score World Championship Update:
Now, we come to the part where we award Formula 1-style points to IndyCar drivers based on their Race Scores.
Here are the current R.S.W.C Standings:
| Driver |
RCWC Points |
Points Back |
|
|
|
| Sato |
50 |
0 |
| Castroneves |
45 |
-5 |
| Andretti |
42 |
-8 |
| Dixon |
36 |
-14 |
| Newgarden |
33 |
-17 |
| Hunter-Reay |
25 |
-25 |
| Pagenaud |
25 |
-25 |
| Wison |
20 |
-30 |
| Hinchcliffe |
20 |
-30 |
| Viso |
15 |
-35 |
| Kimball |
14 |
-36 |
| Rahal |
12 |
-38 |
| Kanaan |
11 |
-39 |
| Servia |
10 |
-40 |
| Tagliani |
7 |
-43 |
| Franchitti |
6 |
-44 |
| Bourdais |
6 |
-44 |
| Power |
6 |
-44 |
| de Silvestro |
6 |
-44 |
| Hildebrand |
4 |
-46 |
| Carpenter |
1 |
-49 |
- Once again, the similarities between the R.S.W.C. and IndyCar standings is uncanny. The outlying result is the mayor himself, James Hinchcliffe. Hinch has had the "bad" fortune of good starting positions for his wins. And, because of that, he's scored relatively poorly (as poorly as you can while still winning, P4 in St. Pete and P6 here) in his wins. Whereas, Sato has had back-to-back P1 Race Scores.
- Drivers that I expect to improve during "oval season": Kanaan, Carpenter, Franchitti. Now, I think Sato and Andretti will have very good oval seasons as well.
- That said, at this point in the season (basically 20% of the way home) I would take Dixon, Castroneves, and Andretti to bring home this little experiment and give away the field. That gives away the current leader, Takuma Sato. I just can't trust Sato to close. He's starting to prove that he can finish races, but I just can't buy in yet.
Well, that's all I've got without actually watching the race.
See you on Friday,
-- Guido
Hello Internet! It's Friday, and Scoring Indy is back for another IndyCar race preview. This time, the series is down in South America to race on the streets of Sao Paulo Brazil. Here's what happened last year:
| Race
Finish |
Driver |
Qualifying |
Grid |
Laps Led |
Laps Completed |
A.R.S. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
Power |
1 |
1 |
63 |
75 |
92.00 |
| 2 |
Hunter-Reay |
5 |
5 |
0 |
75 |
53.85 |
| 3 |
Sato |
26 |
25 |
0 |
75 |
89.42 |
| 4 |
Castroneves |
20 |
18 |
2 |
75 |
74.41 |
| 5 |
Franchitti |
2 |
2 |
1 |
75 |
37.21 |
| 6 |
Hinchcliffe |
4 |
4 |
1 |
75 |
37.21 |
| 7 |
Hidebrand |
15 |
14 |
0 |
75 |
52.88 |
| 8 |
Kimball |
16 |
15 |
0 |
75 |
50.96 |
| 9 |
Viso |
14 |
13 |
0 |
75 |
43.27 |
| 10 |
Barrichello |
13 |
12 |
0 |
75 |
37.50 |
| 11 |
Servia |
24 |
23 |
0 |
75 |
54.81 |
| 12 |
Pagenaud |
17 |
16 |
0 |
74 |
37.38 |
| 13 |
Kanaan |
12 |
11 |
0 |
74 |
24.08 |
| 14 |
Andretti |
11 |
10 |
0 |
74 |
18.36 |
| 15 |
Jakes |
18 |
17 |
0 |
74 |
27.82 |
| 16 |
Rahal |
7 |
6 |
0 |
74 |
3.13 |
| 17 |
Dixon |
3 |
3 |
8 |
74 |
-2.07 |
| 18 |
Bourdais |
19 |
22 |
0 |
74 |
22.05 |
| 19 |
Conway |
8 |
7 |
0 |
73 |
-6.14 |
| 20 |
Beatriz |
21 |
19 |
0 |
73 |
13.46 |
| 21 |
Carpenter |
22 |
20 |
0 |
72 |
11.54 |
| 22 |
Wilson |
6 |
26 |
0 |
66 |
-0.54 |
| 23 |
Newgarden |
9 |
8 |
0 |
61 |
-14.99 |
| 24 |
de Silvestro |
23 |
21 |
0 |
28 |
4.33 |
| 25 |
Briscoe |
10 |
9 |
0 |
21 |
-4.50 |
| 26 |
Legge |
25 |
24 |
0 |
20 |
1.15 |
Observations:
- Classic Will Power domination from that part of last season. He was just 4 laps led away from a 100 point performance (we only had one last year, bonus points if you know who it was before that race's preview this year.)
- Numbers that jump off the page: Sato at 89.42; Castroneves at 74.41; Servia at 54.81.
- Remarkable things about Sato's numbers: 75 laps completed (a rarity many times for Taku, hopefully after his win at Long Beach that starts to change); charging from P25 on the grid to P3 at the end; this might be the start of a good little run for Sato (we know he has speed at Indy...)
- Remarkable things about Castroneves' numbers: hes' the highest scoring Brazilian in a Brazilian race with four Brazilians in it (considering that he was the highest Brazilian in points last year, that shouldn't be totally remarkable, but still); Helio was also the tiebreaker in the eternal "Did Penske have a good weekend?" question: Briscoe didn't race long, with the dreaded "Contact" annotation in the box score and Power dominated, so Did Penske have a good weekend? Yes, and Helio's the tiebreaker.
- Remarkable things about Servia's numbers: he's the highest finishing (and highest scoring) Lotus by a WIDE margin (seriously, does anyone remember how bad those Lotuses were?); he gains 12 positions and nearly cracks the top 10 with an engine at a SERIOUS power disadvantage (although, for the Barber, Long Beach, and Sao Paulo races last year, everyone was at a Power disadvantage, Bazinga!); all this on the course with the longest straight on the schedule. Remarkable, no matter how you slice it. And, now his race team is shutting down. Seriously, can we just all send Dennis Reinbold like 20 bucks? Although, if everyone that reads my blog send 20 bucks, he'd get like 200 bucks... But still!! This is just frustrating to me.
This Year:
This race this year is going to be a little funky for me. I have to go to my denomination's regional assembly. And, church meetings are church meetings, so it's likely that they will run long. I don't begrudge that; that's just the way it goes. So, I'm not going to get a lot of eyeball/eardrum time on the race this weekend. I think that this could be cool. I'm going to go primarily by the numbers, and I'm interested to see how my predictions and analysis match up with those who watched the actual pictures.
On a mathematical note: we're back to 25 cars this week, so positions count for more.
Stay tuned to @ScoringIndy on Twitter. There will still be Twitter Predictions, even if I don't see a lick of qualifying. Besides, all you good people on the internet will keep me informed.
Let's go racing!
-- Guido
