Pay No Attention to the Formula Behind the Curtain

Hello Internet! I realize that this post going up on Thursday night means that I'm posting Thursday night then Friday morning. I had a crazy week. Also, they're two totally different subjects, so they get different posts. You know, for posterity, or something. Ok: Feast of F1 Data, Part I:

Race Finish	Driver	Starting Position	Laps Led	Laps Completed	Old Formula	Ranking
1	Alonso	3	31	56	82.22	1
2	Raikkonen	2	0	56	47.73	4
3	Hamilton	1	4	56	44.48	5
4	Vettel	9	6	56	59.90	2
5	Button	8	6	56	53.08	3
6	Massa	5	1	56	37.26	7
7	Ricciardo	7	0	56	36.36	9
8	di Resta	11	0	56	40.91	6
9	Grosjean	6	0	56	25.00	13
10	Hulkenberg	10	8	56	36.69	8
11	Perez	12	0	56	29.55	11
12	Vergne	15	0	56	31.82	10
13	Bottas	16	0	56	29.55	12
14	Maldonado	14	0	56	20.45	16
15	Bianchi	18	0	55	24.88	14
16	Pic	20	0	55	24.84	15
17	Chilton	19	0	55	18.10	17
18	van der Garde	21	0	55	18.06	18
19	Rosberg	4	0	21	-3.69	22
20	Webber	22	0	15	8.04	19
21	Sutil	13	0	5	2.92	20
22	Guitierrez	17	0	4	1.46	21

So, this is the Old Formula, a true Scoring Indy original. Things that are both spectacular and wonderful about it are as follows:

1) The re-shuffle of the Top 5 is perfect. Vettel's tire (sorry, F1, tyre) strategy worked out as well as could be expected, and I'd say that this was Button's best drive of the year.

2) The rule of thumb that 35 and up is a good drive holds, with Race Score ranks 1-9 scoring above the 35 point threshold.

I suppose that this boils down to, it basically gets the job done and I know how to read it.

Here are the things that bug me:

1) Rosberg was doing really well when his suspension went. Not his fault. I don't want to penalize people for stuff that isn't their fault. And yet, here's Nico Rosberg with the only negative score.

2) Massa seems high. Now, this is splitting hairs, but the point of scoring these races is to determine who did better than whom. Just, instinctively, I want to say that Hulkenberg and Ricciardo did better.

So, let us now take a look at possible replacements and see how our added data from lap charts and running orders can help to clear up our annoyances, while still maintaining the things that we like about the old formula. Here come the Feast of F1 Data, Part II:

Race Finish Driver Starting Position Laps Led Laps Completed Formula A Formula B Formula C 1 Alonso 3 31 56 86.14 95.47 95.47 2 Raikkonen 2 0 56 61.39 73.84 73.84 3 Hamilton 1 4 56 58.81 76.88 74.21 4 Vettel 9 6 56 66.38 72.60 68.60 5 Button 8 6 56 63.04 70.30 64.97 6 Massa 5 1 56 44.36 64.91 58.24 7 Ricciardo 7 0 56 44.45 64.92 62.25 8 di Resta 11 0 56 50.62 57.48 53.48 9 Grosjean 6 0 56 32.42 56.09 49.42 10 Hulkenberg 10 8 56 47.21 61.76 49.76 11 Perez 12 0 56 40.86 52.86 42.20 12 Vergne 15 0 56 45.96 51.49 43.49 13 Bottas 16 0 56 35.30 39.69 34.36 14 Maldonado 14 0 56 23.58 36.69 31.35 15 Bianchi 18 0 55 29.52 28.81 27.51 16 Pic 20 0 55 25.99 28.23 26.92 17 Chilton 19 0 55 19.66 24.90 22.28 18 van der Garde 21 0 55 18.65 18.65 17.34 19 Rosberg 4 0 21 4.95 19.41 12.41 20 Webber 22 0 15 10.15 12.02 8.45 21 Sutil 13 0 5 3.14 5.08 3.77 22 Guitierrez 17 0 4 2.29 2.83 1.78

So, here are brief descriptions of the three formulae:

- Formula A looks a lot like our own formula. What it adds is that it takes into account average running position as an equal factor to race finish and gaining positions.

- Formula B goes even further. Instead of working with positions gained against starting position, this Formula looks at positions gained from the lowest that driver ever was during the race to the highest position that the driver ever had officially scored at the end of a lap.

- Formula C tries to be a middle road. It accounts for positions gained from the lowest running spot to finishing position.

How do they address the concerns above?

- Shakes up the Top 5 into the order: Alonso, Vettel, Button, Raikkonen, Hamilton: Formula A: YES / Formula B: NO / Formula C: NO

- Keep the rule of thumb that 35 points is a good drive: Formulae A, B, & C: NO (Note that this isn't technically a problem, we'll just have to re-calibrate what "good" is.)

- Does something to keep Rosberg out of the cellar: Formulae A, B, & C: YES (I think that Formulae B and C do a little TOO much to help Rosberg. He only ran 21 laps, after all, and Formula B puts him AHEAD of van der Garde. Aside, van der Garde's first name is Giedo. That's pretty close to Guido. He's my new favorite. Also, the livery on those Caterhams looks cool.)

- Puts Hulkenberg and Ricciardo ahead of Massa: Formula A: YES / Formula B: NO / Formula C: NO (Aside, both B and C put Ricciardo above Massa, but Hulkenberg stays behind.)

So where does this leave us? Well, right now I like Formula A best for the new Post-Indy Scoring Indy formula. That's not in pen yet. I have to finish doing all the data entry for the IndyCar races up to this point (as well as checking my results against the yet-to-be-contested Long Beach and Sao Paulo races). We'll know for sure by Indy.

Long Beach preview goes up tomorrow! Stay tuned for the Scoring Indy Twitter predictions after qualifying!

Later!

-- Guido