Hello, Internet. Sorry that this is on Monday, not Friday. I was traveling back and forth from my Hoosier Homeland for a memorial service. Another quick apology, because this post is not the one I wanted to be writing right now. I had hoped to give you Race Scores from that most awesome of all cinder-track bicycle races: the Little 500 at my Alma Mater: Indiana University. I'm still going to do this, but I can't until official results of the race (including laps completed) are posted, and the IU Student Foundation hasn't done that yet. So, some day when you least expect it, there will be college bicycle scores here on a professional auto racing blog.
So, here's what we're going to do instead. I present to you the most and least surprising (to me) score of each race so far. So, let's hop in the Way Back / Florida Machine and get to it:
St. Pete
Most Surprising: Dario Franchitti with a Race Score of -2.91. I REALLY expected Franchitti to come out of the gates better than crashing out on lap 18. You can chalk this up to being a fan. (What can I say? My name's Guido, it seems logical that I should support the guy with the most Italian name in the series.) Objectively, he never (with brief, brief exceptions) really looked like he got a handle on the DW-12 in 2012. I shouldn't have been surprised. But, I was.
Least Surprising: James Hinchcliffe with a Race Score of 67.82. Now hear me out. Remember this was the fourth-best score of the race. And, Hinch won. And, I'm saying that I'm not surprised by that. I knew it would be hard for Hinch to put up a big number starting in P4 (the new formula helps with that somewhat), and I didn't think he had a dominant car in qualifying. So, I wasn't surprised that his winning Race Score didn't crack the top 3.
Barber
Most Surprising: Tristian Vautier with a Race Score of 19.23. I expected Vautier to put up a HUGE number at Barber. I really did. I was smitten with that car after qualifying, and early in the race, I seemed to be validated. But, something went sideways and Vautier finished P10. Losing six spots, and not leading any laps (admittedly, leading is hard to do at Barber) is a recipe for a bad score, and I didn't see it coming for Entrant Number 55.
Least Surprising: Charlie Kimball with a Race Score of 47.87. I'm saying it's least surprising cause I called it in my Twitter predictions. He started fifth. He finished fourth. He had the sixth-best score. Sometimes, I make myself feel smart (only sometimes...)
Long Beach
Most Surprising: Mike Conway with a Race Score of -12.04. I picked him to win. Now, I know that Race Scores don't totally correlate to finish. But, a score of -12.04 should give you a pretty good indication that Conway did not win. Former winner. Competitive car. VERY surprising result. (Honorable mention to Ana Beatriz with a positive surprise scoring a 41.67)
Least Surprising: JR Hildebrand with a Race Score of 55.56. I know what you're saying "What? Was JR even in the race, and if he really did score a 55.56 and finish P5, how are you not surprised by that, Guido?" Here's why. He scored a 67.31 and finished P5 at Long Beach in 2012. JR had a reasonable run at Barber, and coming to California (where he's from) and a track that he seems to have figured out, I wasn't in the least bit shocked to see JR pull down a substantial number.
Upcoming
Sao Paulo stuff starts up this weekend. Look for a preview blog on Friday, as well as Twitter predictions after the grid is set. Then, you know the drill with a recap afterwards in the first part of next week.
Let's go racing! (Put that into Google translate for Portuguese for this week! I'd do it myself, but I didn't)
-- Guido
Monday, April 29, 2013
Monday, April 22, 2013
A Long (Beach) Look Back
Hello Internet! Before we sit down for our lovely data picnic, how about one big general observation from the Long Beach GP:
- I was SUPER happy to see Sato bring it home. I have enjoyed watching him race (especially this year and last), but I have not enjoyed watching him crash. This time, he raced well and did not crash. If you read the last two sentences, you can infer that I enjoyed all that put together. The other reason that I enjoyed Taku's run is that I only have one degree of separation from AJ Foyt (one of the members of my parish knows him). And, this makes AJ the IndyCar owner to whom I am most closely connected in a Kevin Bacon-ish type way. Years from now, when this blog makes me IndyCar famous (that's like normal famous, except just for IndyCar) I will have actually met IndyCar owners, but for now my one degree from AJ Foyt is as good as it gets.
Long Beach Results
Ok, I promised you a lovely data picnic. Here it is (A.R.S. is Aggregate Race Score):
Observations & Prediction Review
- This week we've got some pretty high highs and some pretty low lows. Just looking at the numbers, you see two drivers above 86 (Sato, who dominated the race, and Wilson, who passed EVERYONE). But, you also see eight drivers, EIGHT, who wind up with negative scores.
- Aside, I don't like negative scores. They make me sad and seem like no fun. But, there is good news, the new formula I'm working on tends to skew the numbers upward. So, come the Indy 500 and afterwards, negatives may become much rarer.
- #TGPLB Prediction 1) Franchitti de-funks himself with a good run: Top 5 Race, Top 10 Race Score.
- VERDICT: Nailed it. Kneel before Zod! P4 on track, 7th best Aggregate Race Score.
- #TGPLB Prediction 2) James Jakes has a better Race Score than anyone from Andretti Autosport.
- VERDICT: Not quite. Marco Andretti makes me look foolish here. In my defense, however, the spirit of the prediction was that Rahal Letterman Lannigan was better set up for the race than was Andretti, and I think the spirit of that held true (see Rahal, Graham finishing P2). In my further defense, Jakesy CRUSHED RHR, Hinch, and Viso. 75% ain't bad, but I did say "anyone."
- #TLBGP Prediction 3) Simona gets RSWC points.
- VERDICT: Yes, she does. Two of them. See below.
- #TGPLB Prediction 4) Mike Conway wins. 4a) Mike Conway races again in IndyCar this season.
- VERDICT: Dead wrong. Probably twice. I don't regret it, though. He was running pretty well (not race-winning well, but well) up until he got "Electrical"-ed out.
- All in all, two predictions perfect, one mostly, and one big swing and a miss. I'll take it.
Race Score World Championship
Here's your updated RSWC Standings:
- I just want to point out what a good road/street course run Marco Andretti is having. The fact that he is P3 in the RSWC boggles the mind. Maybe I was underestimating Marco, but I sure thought of him as an oval "specialist" almost (but not quite) on the order of Ed Carpenter coming into the season. Boy, am I happy to be wrong. As long as he shows well on the ovals, that is.
- Good to see de Silvestro score here. Her good qualifying position, and tire degradation were her undoing in St. Pete (although, it appears the new formula would have scored her a point or two), I think she'll be a major (or at least more major) player in the RSWC by the end of the season.
- I still stand by Ed Carpenter and his one point. He WILL score RSWC points on ovals, and his 28.70 this week was better than RSWC Leader, Helio Castroneves' 25.93. We haven't heard the last from Ed.
- Finally, as should be apparent, Castroneves fails to score, tightening things up between him, Dixon, and Andretti.
There's an open weekend before Sao Paulo, so stay tuned to the blog for the regularly scheduled Friday update. I'm going to have a little bit of fun with my Alma Mater and bicycles. Plus, you might just get introduced to a good friend of mine.
Later,
-- Guido
- I was SUPER happy to see Sato bring it home. I have enjoyed watching him race (especially this year and last), but I have not enjoyed watching him crash. This time, he raced well and did not crash. If you read the last two sentences, you can infer that I enjoyed all that put together. The other reason that I enjoyed Taku's run is that I only have one degree of separation from AJ Foyt (one of the members of my parish knows him). And, this makes AJ the IndyCar owner to whom I am most closely connected in a Kevin Bacon-ish type way. Years from now, when this blog makes me IndyCar famous (that's like normal famous, except just for IndyCar) I will have actually met IndyCar owners, but for now my one degree from AJ Foyt is as good as it gets.
Long Beach Results
Ok, I promised you a lovely data picnic. Here it is (A.R.S. is Aggregate Race Score):
| Race Finish | Driver | Qualifying Position | Starting Position | Laps Led | Laps Completed | A.R.S |
| 1 | Sato | 4 | 4 | 50 | 80 | 86.81 |
| 2 | Rahal | 11 | 11 | 0 | 80 | 64.81 |
| 3 | Wilson | 25 | 24 | 0 | 80 | 86.11 |
| 4 | Franchitti | 1 | 1 | 27 | 80 | 55.76 |
| 5 | Hildebrand | 12 | 12 | 0 | 80 | 55.56 |
| 6 | Servia | 18 | 18 | 0 | 80 | 62.96 |
| 7 | Andretti | 26 | 25 | 0 | 80 | 73.15 |
| 8 | Pagenaud | 17 | 17 | 0 | 80 | 53.70 |
| 9 | de Silvestro | 20 | 19 | 0 | 80 | 54.63 |
| 10 | Castroneves | 6 | 6 | 0 | 80 | 25.93 |
| 11 | Dixon | 27 | 26 | 0 | 80 | 60.19 |
| 12 | Jakes | 13 | 13 | 0 | 80 | 31.48 |
| 13 | Newgarden | 16 | 16 | 0 | 80 | 33.33 |
| 14 | Beatriz | 23 | 22 | 0 | 80 | 41.67 |
| 15 | Bourdais | 15 | 15 | 0 | 80 | 24.07 |
| 16 | Power | 3 | 3 | 2 | 80 | -0.60 |
| 17 | Vautier | 19 | 27 | 0 | 80 | 31.48 |
| 18 | Carpenter | 24 | 23 | 0 | 80 | 28.70 |
| 19 | Tagliani | 22 | 21 | 0 | 79 | 21.24 |
| 20 | Kanaan | 8 | 8 | 0 | 78 | -6.85 |
| 21 | Kimball | 9 | 9 | 0 | 78 | -8.70 |
| 22 | Viso | 10 | 10 | 0 | 53 | -3.61 |
| 23 | Allmendinger | 14 | 14 | 0 | 51 | -1.37 |
| 24 | Hunter-Reay | 2 | 2 | 1 | 49 | -17.16 |
| 25 | Conway | 5 | 5 | 0 | 38 | -12.04 |
| 26 | Hinchcliffe | 7 | 7 | 0 | 34 | -11.25 |
| 27 | Saavedra | 21 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1.70 |
Observations & Prediction Review
- This week we've got some pretty high highs and some pretty low lows. Just looking at the numbers, you see two drivers above 86 (Sato, who dominated the race, and Wilson, who passed EVERYONE). But, you also see eight drivers, EIGHT, who wind up with negative scores.
- Aside, I don't like negative scores. They make me sad and seem like no fun. But, there is good news, the new formula I'm working on tends to skew the numbers upward. So, come the Indy 500 and afterwards, negatives may become much rarer.
- #TGPLB Prediction 1) Franchitti de-funks himself with a good run: Top 5 Race, Top 10 Race Score.
- VERDICT: Nailed it. Kneel before Zod! P4 on track, 7th best Aggregate Race Score.
- #TGPLB Prediction 2) James Jakes has a better Race Score than anyone from Andretti Autosport.
- VERDICT: Not quite. Marco Andretti makes me look foolish here. In my defense, however, the spirit of the prediction was that Rahal Letterman Lannigan was better set up for the race than was Andretti, and I think the spirit of that held true (see Rahal, Graham finishing P2). In my further defense, Jakesy CRUSHED RHR, Hinch, and Viso. 75% ain't bad, but I did say "anyone."
- #TLBGP Prediction 3) Simona gets RSWC points.
- VERDICT: Yes, she does. Two of them. See below.
- #TGPLB Prediction 4) Mike Conway wins. 4a) Mike Conway races again in IndyCar this season.
- VERDICT: Dead wrong. Probably twice. I don't regret it, though. He was running pretty well (not race-winning well, but well) up until he got "Electrical"-ed out.
- All in all, two predictions perfect, one mostly, and one big swing and a miss. I'll take it.
Race Score World Championship
Here's your updated RSWC Standings:
| Driver | RCWC Points | Points Back |
| Castroneves | 43 | 0 |
| Dixon | 36 | -7 |
| Andretti | 27 | -16 |
| Sato | 25 | -18 |
| Hunter-Reay | 25 | -18 |
| Wison | 20 | -23 |
| Newgarden | 15 | -28 |
| Viso | 15 | -28 |
| Pagenaud | 13 | -30 |
| Rahal | 12 | -31 |
| Hinchcliffe | 12 | -31 |
| Kanaan | 11 | -32 |
| Servia | 10 | -33 |
| Kimball | 8 | -35 |
| Franchitti | 6 | -37 |
| Bourdais | 6 | -37 |
| Tagliani | 6 | -37 |
| Power | 6 | -37 |
| Hildebrand | 4 | -39 |
| de Silvestro | 2 | -41 |
| Carpenter | 1 | -42 |
- Good to see de Silvestro score here. Her good qualifying position, and tire degradation were her undoing in St. Pete (although, it appears the new formula would have scored her a point or two), I think she'll be a major (or at least more major) player in the RSWC by the end of the season.
- I still stand by Ed Carpenter and his one point. He WILL score RSWC points on ovals, and his 28.70 this week was better than RSWC Leader, Helio Castroneves' 25.93. We haven't heard the last from Ed.
- Finally, as should be apparent, Castroneves fails to score, tightening things up between him, Dixon, and Andretti.
There's an open weekend before Sao Paulo, so stay tuned to the blog for the regularly scheduled Friday update. I'm going to have a little bit of fun with my Alma Mater and bicycles. Plus, you might just get introduced to a good friend of mine.
Later,
-- Guido
Friday, April 19, 2013
A Long Time Ago, on a Beach Far Far Away
Hello Internet! Back after a less-than-18-hour break. Go back and check out my musings on the new Indy-and-afterward formula, using the Formula 1 Chinese Grand Prix results.
Ok, time turn to the IndyCar at hand: Long Beach! As usual, turn forward by turning back. Here's the data jamboree:
Notes:
- Last year's Long Beach race saw EVERY Chevy in the field take a 10-grid penalty, and so this is the first time we see the use of an Aggregate Race Score, factoring in positions gained against the start as well as against qualifying.
- Top 3 Race Scores: Pagenaud (73.95); Power (70.36); Hildebrand (67.31). This was the race that really got me excited about Simon Pagenaud. I listened on the "radio." And, by radio I mean the IndyCar app on my phone. That thing rules. Plug over. And, listening on the radio I was electrified by listening to Pagenaud try to chase down Will Power. Speaking of Power, his Aggregate Race Score gets bumped up by virtue of the penalty, but he'd have put up a big number anyway. He was untouchable during the Barber-Long Beach-Brazil stretch last year. Finally, big ups to J.R. Hildebrand. He's a flashes of brilliance type driver, and his relationship with the National Guard is admirable. Would love to see him have a Kimball-style improvement track, but I just haven't seen that happen yet...
- Things that stand out from the data: Ed Carpenter with a big number. I refer you to my on-the-record comments concerning Ed Carpenter and the 2013 Race Score World Championship. James Jakes with quite the Aggregate Race Score as well; and Bourdais scored 33.14 in a LOTUS. A LOTUS, people!! Sebastien (with 2 es) sure does love Long Beach.
- Words on newcomers: Vautier was third in last year's Indy Lights race. He'll be fine. Allmendinger never really had a great Champ Car result at Long Beach, but he looked GOOD at Barber (the numbers didn't show it, but I have eyeballs). Bia is in the second Coyne car. It will run like the second Coyne car (note, Jakes was in that car last year, but when I say "second Coyne car" I think we all know what I mean).
So, that's the general notes. After qualifying on Saturday, I will be putting up Twitter predictions. Stay tuned to @ScoringIndy on Twitter for those!
Let's go racing, Long Beach!
- Guido
Ok, time turn to the IndyCar at hand: Long Beach! As usual, turn forward by turning back. Here's the data jamboree:
| Race Finish | Driver | Qualifying Position | Starting Position | Laps Led | Laps Completed | Aggregate Race Score |
| 1 | Power | 2 | 12 | 15 | 85 | 70.36 |
| 2 | Pagenaud | 11 | 4 | 26 | 85 | 73.95 |
| 3 | Hinchcliffe | 6 | 16 | 0 | 85 | 61.54 |
| 4 | Kanaan | 10 | 19 | 0 | 85 | 64.42 |
| 5 | Hildebrand | 16 | 20 | 0 | 85 | 67.31 |
| 6 | Hunter-Reay | 3 | 13 | 4 | 85 | 46.58 |
| 7 | Briscoe | 1 | 11 | 5 | 85 | 39.48 |
| 8 | Sato | 13 | 6 | 16 | 84 | 48.69 |
| 9 | Barrichello | 19 | 22 | 0 | 84 | 56.47 |
| 10 | Wilson | 9 | 3 | 15 | 84 | 33.81 |
| 11 | Jakes | 22 | 14 | 0 | 84 | 44.07 |
| 12 | Viso | 5 | 15 | 0 | 84 | 25.05 |
| 13 | Castroneves | 8 | 18 | 0 | 84 | 26.92 |
| 14 | Carpenter | 23 | 24 | 0 | 83 | 42.84 |
| 15 | Franchitti | 4 | 1 | 4 | 82 | 2.16 |
| 16 | Servia | 20 | 23 | 0 | 82 | 31.36 |
| 17 | Bourdais | 24 | 25 | 0 | 82 | 33.14 |
| 18 | Kimball | 17 | 9 | 0 | 80 | 8.26 |
| 19 | Legge | 25 | 26 | 0 | 80 | 27.15 |
| 20 | de Silvestro | 26 | 17 | 0 | 74 | 15.97 |
| 21 | Tagliani | 21 | 10 | 0 | 46 | 5.81 |
| 22 | Conway | 14 | 7 | 0 | 41 | -1.05 |
| 23 | Dixon | 12 | 5 | 0 | 27 | -1.17 |
| 24 | Rahal | 15 | 8 | 0 | 23 | -0.74 |
| 25 | Andretti | 18 | 21 | 0 | 22 | 1.11 |
| 26 | Newgarden | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.92 |
Notes:
- Last year's Long Beach race saw EVERY Chevy in the field take a 10-grid penalty, and so this is the first time we see the use of an Aggregate Race Score, factoring in positions gained against the start as well as against qualifying.
- Top 3 Race Scores: Pagenaud (73.95); Power (70.36); Hildebrand (67.31). This was the race that really got me excited about Simon Pagenaud. I listened on the "radio." And, by radio I mean the IndyCar app on my phone. That thing rules. Plug over. And, listening on the radio I was electrified by listening to Pagenaud try to chase down Will Power. Speaking of Power, his Aggregate Race Score gets bumped up by virtue of the penalty, but he'd have put up a big number anyway. He was untouchable during the Barber-Long Beach-Brazil stretch last year. Finally, big ups to J.R. Hildebrand. He's a flashes of brilliance type driver, and his relationship with the National Guard is admirable. Would love to see him have a Kimball-style improvement track, but I just haven't seen that happen yet...
- Things that stand out from the data: Ed Carpenter with a big number. I refer you to my on-the-record comments concerning Ed Carpenter and the 2013 Race Score World Championship. James Jakes with quite the Aggregate Race Score as well; and Bourdais scored 33.14 in a LOTUS. A LOTUS, people!! Sebastien (with 2 es) sure does love Long Beach.
- Words on newcomers: Vautier was third in last year's Indy Lights race. He'll be fine. Allmendinger never really had a great Champ Car result at Long Beach, but he looked GOOD at Barber (the numbers didn't show it, but I have eyeballs). Bia is in the second Coyne car. It will run like the second Coyne car (note, Jakes was in that car last year, but when I say "second Coyne car" I think we all know what I mean).
So, that's the general notes. After qualifying on Saturday, I will be putting up Twitter predictions. Stay tuned to @ScoringIndy on Twitter for those!
Let's go racing, Long Beach!
- Guido
Thursday, April 18, 2013
Pay No Attention to the Formula Behind the Curtain
Hello Internet! I realize that this post going up on Thursday night means that I'm posting Thursday night then Friday morning. I had a crazy week. Also, they're two totally different subjects, so they get different posts. You know, for posterity, or something. Ok: Feast of F1 Data, Part I:
So, this is the Old Formula, a true Scoring Indy original. Things that are both spectacular and wonderful about it are as follows:
1) The re-shuffle of the Top 5 is perfect. Vettel's tire (sorry, F1, tyre) strategy worked out as well as could be expected, and I'd say that this was Button's best drive of the year.
2) The rule of thumb that 35 and up is a good drive holds, with Race Score ranks 1-9 scoring above the 35 point threshold.
I suppose that this boils down to, it basically gets the job done and I know how to read it.
Here are the things that bug me:
1) Rosberg was doing really well when his suspension went. Not his fault. I don't want to penalize people for stuff that isn't their fault. And yet, here's Nico Rosberg with the only negative score.
2) Massa seems high. Now, this is splitting hairs, but the point of scoring these races is to determine who did better than whom. Just, instinctively, I want to say that Hulkenberg and Ricciardo did better.
So, let us now take a look at possible replacements and see how our added data from lap charts and running orders can help to clear up our annoyances, while still maintaining the things that we like about the old formula. Here come the Feast of F1 Data, Part II:
So, here are brief descriptions of the three formulae:
- Formula A looks a lot like our own formula. What it adds is that it takes into account average running position as an equal factor to race finish and gaining positions.
- Formula B goes even further. Instead of working with positions gained against starting position, this Formula looks at positions gained from the lowest that driver ever was during the race to the highest position that the driver ever had officially scored at the end of a lap.
- Formula C tries to be a middle road. It accounts for positions gained from the lowest running spot to finishing position.
How do they address the concerns above?
- Shakes up the Top 5 into the order: Alonso, Vettel, Button, Raikkonen, Hamilton: Formula A: YES / Formula B: NO / Formula C: NO
- Keep the rule of thumb that 35 points is a good drive: Formulae A, B, & C: NO (Note that this isn't technically a problem, we'll just have to re-calibrate what "good" is.)
- Does something to keep Rosberg out of the cellar: Formulae A, B, & C: YES (I think that Formulae B and C do a little TOO much to help Rosberg. He only ran 21 laps, after all, and Formula B puts him AHEAD of van der Garde. Aside, van der Garde's first name is Giedo. That's pretty close to Guido. He's my new favorite. Also, the livery on those Caterhams looks cool.)
- Puts Hulkenberg and Ricciardo ahead of Massa: Formula A: YES / Formula B: NO / Formula C: NO (Aside, both B and C put Ricciardo above Massa, but Hulkenberg stays behind.)
So where does this leave us? Well, right now I like Formula A best for the new Post-Indy Scoring Indy formula. That's not in pen yet. I have to finish doing all the data entry for the IndyCar races up to this point (as well as checking my results against the yet-to-be-contested Long Beach and Sao Paulo races). We'll know for sure by Indy.
Long Beach preview goes up tomorrow! Stay tuned for the Scoring Indy Twitter predictions after qualifying!
Later!
-- Guido
| Race Finish | Driver | Starting Position | Laps Led | Laps Completed | Old Formula | Ranking |
| 1 | Alonso | 3 | 31 | 56 | 82.22 | 1 |
| 2 | Raikkonen | 2 | 0 | 56 | 47.73 | 4 |
| 3 | Hamilton | 1 | 4 | 56 | 44.48 | 5 |
| 4 | Vettel | 9 | 6 | 56 | 59.90 | 2 |
| 5 | Button | 8 | 6 | 56 | 53.08 | 3 |
| 6 | Massa | 5 | 1 | 56 | 37.26 | 7 |
| 7 | Ricciardo | 7 | 0 | 56 | 36.36 | 9 |
| 8 | di Resta | 11 | 0 | 56 | 40.91 | 6 |
| 9 | Grosjean | 6 | 0 | 56 | 25.00 | 13 |
| 10 | Hulkenberg | 10 | 8 | 56 | 36.69 | 8 |
| 11 | Perez | 12 | 0 | 56 | 29.55 | 11 |
| 12 | Vergne | 15 | 0 | 56 | 31.82 | 10 |
| 13 | Bottas | 16 | 0 | 56 | 29.55 | 12 |
| 14 | Maldonado | 14 | 0 | 56 | 20.45 | 16 |
| 15 | Bianchi | 18 | 0 | 55 | 24.88 | 14 |
| 16 | Pic | 20 | 0 | 55 | 24.84 | 15 |
| 17 | Chilton | 19 | 0 | 55 | 18.10 | 17 |
| 18 | van der Garde | 21 | 0 | 55 | 18.06 | 18 |
| 19 | Rosberg | 4 | 0 | 21 | -3.69 | 22 |
| 20 | Webber | 22 | 0 | 15 | 8.04 | 19 |
| 21 | Sutil | 13 | 0 | 5 | 2.92 | 20 |
| 22 | Guitierrez | 17 | 0 | 4 | 1.46 | 21 |
So, this is the Old Formula, a true Scoring Indy original. Things that are both spectacular and wonderful about it are as follows:
1) The re-shuffle of the Top 5 is perfect. Vettel's tire (sorry, F1, tyre) strategy worked out as well as could be expected, and I'd say that this was Button's best drive of the year.
2) The rule of thumb that 35 and up is a good drive holds, with Race Score ranks 1-9 scoring above the 35 point threshold.
I suppose that this boils down to, it basically gets the job done and I know how to read it.
Here are the things that bug me:
1) Rosberg was doing really well when his suspension went. Not his fault. I don't want to penalize people for stuff that isn't their fault. And yet, here's Nico Rosberg with the only negative score.
2) Massa seems high. Now, this is splitting hairs, but the point of scoring these races is to determine who did better than whom. Just, instinctively, I want to say that Hulkenberg and Ricciardo did better.
So, let us now take a look at possible replacements and see how our added data from lap charts and running orders can help to clear up our annoyances, while still maintaining the things that we like about the old formula. Here come the Feast of F1 Data, Part II:
|
So, here are brief descriptions of the three formulae:
- Formula A looks a lot like our own formula. What it adds is that it takes into account average running position as an equal factor to race finish and gaining positions.
- Formula B goes even further. Instead of working with positions gained against starting position, this Formula looks at positions gained from the lowest that driver ever was during the race to the highest position that the driver ever had officially scored at the end of a lap.
- Formula C tries to be a middle road. It accounts for positions gained from the lowest running spot to finishing position.
How do they address the concerns above?
- Shakes up the Top 5 into the order: Alonso, Vettel, Button, Raikkonen, Hamilton: Formula A: YES / Formula B: NO / Formula C: NO
- Keep the rule of thumb that 35 points is a good drive: Formulae A, B, & C: NO (Note that this isn't technically a problem, we'll just have to re-calibrate what "good" is.)
- Does something to keep Rosberg out of the cellar: Formulae A, B, & C: YES (I think that Formulae B and C do a little TOO much to help Rosberg. He only ran 21 laps, after all, and Formula B puts him AHEAD of van der Garde. Aside, van der Garde's first name is Giedo. That's pretty close to Guido. He's my new favorite. Also, the livery on those Caterhams looks cool.)
- Puts Hulkenberg and Ricciardo ahead of Massa: Formula A: YES / Formula B: NO / Formula C: NO (Aside, both B and C put Ricciardo above Massa, but Hulkenberg stays behind.)
So where does this leave us? Well, right now I like Formula A best for the new Post-Indy Scoring Indy formula. That's not in pen yet. I have to finish doing all the data entry for the IndyCar races up to this point (as well as checking my results against the yet-to-be-contested Long Beach and Sao Paulo races). We'll know for sure by Indy.
Long Beach preview goes up tomorrow! Stay tuned for the Scoring Indy Twitter predictions after qualifying!
Later!
-- Guido
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)