Monday, May 6, 2013

And, Now Let May Begin!!

Hello Internet! That's right. Sao Paulo is now in the rear-view mirror, and we can begin the Month of May in earnest. But, before we get all goofy about IndyCars just turning left, let's look back at what happened in Brazil yesterday.

Sao Paulo Results:

Here's the data jamboree:

Race Finish Driver Qualifying Grid Laps Led Laps Completed A.R.S.
1 Hinchcliffe 5 5 1 75 58.67
2 Sato 12 12 22 75 82.67
3 Andretti 10 10 7 75 64.67
4 Servia 13 13 0 75 62.00
5 Newgarden 23 25 0 75 80.00
6 Viso 2 2 0 75 32.00
7 Franchitti 3 3 0 75 30.00
8 de Silvestro 8 8 0 75 36.00
9 Pagenaud 24 23 0 75 63.00
10 Kimball 17 17 0 75 46.00
11 Hunter-Reay 1 1 16 75 20.67
12 Tagliani 15 15 0 75 34.00
13 Castroneves 18 18 0 75 36.00
14 Bourdais 7 7 13 75 18.67
15 Hildebrand 11 11 4 75 16.67
16 Vautier 21 21 0 75 30.00
17 Jakes 25 24 0 75 33.00
18 Dixon 6 6 0 75 -8.00
19 Saavadra 20 20 0 75 16.00
20 Wilson 9 9 0 73 -9.41
21 Kanaan 4 4 12 72 -14.96
22 Rahal 19 19 0 71 2.32
23 Carpenter 14 14 0 71 -11.04
24 Power 22 22 0 17 3.09
25 Beatriz 16 16 0 6 0.56


Observations and Prediction Review:

- First observation, is that I did not observe the race (or qualifying or anything). I was at a denominational meeting, as I said on Friday. So, anything I know comes from sneaking looks at timing and scoring between sessions. So, I can't say how anyone performed until I actually watch, which I will do on YouTube at some point today.

- Second observation is that, like Long Beach, there's a lot of shuffle that happens between qualifying and race. Interesting, was it the fact that passing is possible at Brazil, or strategy? I guess I'll find out when I watch...

- Ok, enough of me talking about how I didn't see it yet. Here's the prediction review:

#IndySaoPaulo Prediction 1) Will Power outscores the race winner. Verdict: Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. Did Power's car catch on fire? I thought I saw on Twitter that it was on fire. He certainly had the car to do it (based on T&S), and Hinch scored under 60. I was on the right track, but sadly power only ran 17 of 75 laps. Hard to outscore anyone when you do that...

#IndySaoPaulo Prediction 2) Oriol Servia Top 10s (finish not Race Score) or crashes out. Verdict: Boom, Baby! Now, I gave myself some wiggle room here. But, I figured that the DRR team would come out and go for broke (no pun intended). P4 in the race. P5 A.R.S. Good on you, Oriol! Someone sponsor this guy!!

- #IndySaoPaulo Prediction 3) James Hinchcliffe becomes the first repeat winner of 2013. Verdict: He's heating up! I can't wait to see that pass for the win. You've done me proud, Hinch. You've done me proud.

#IndySaoPaulo Prediction 4) Castoneves currently leads the RSWC by 7. It will be less after this weekend. Verdict: He's On Fire!! Castroneves currently leads the RSWC by -5. That's right, with an incredible drive, Takuma Sato goes to the front of the RSWC. Which, brings us to...

Race Score World Championship Update:

Now, we come to the part where we award Formula 1-style points to IndyCar drivers based on their Race Scores.

Here are the current R.S.W.C Standings:

Driver RCWC Points Points Back
Sato 50 0
Castroneves 45 -5
Andretti 42 -8
Dixon 36 -14
Newgarden 33 -17
Hunter-Reay 25 -25
Pagenaud 25 -25
Wison 20 -30
Hinchcliffe 20 -30
Viso 15 -35
Kimball 14 -36
Rahal 12 -38
Kanaan 11 -39
Servia 10 -40
Tagliani 7 -43
Franchitti 6 -44
Bourdais 6 -44
Power 6 -44
de Silvestro 6 -44
Hildebrand 4 -46
Carpenter 1 -49


- Once again, the similarities between the R.S.W.C. and IndyCar standings is uncanny. The outlying result is the mayor himself, James Hinchcliffe. Hinch has had the "bad" fortune of good starting positions for his wins. And, because of that, he's scored relatively poorly (as poorly as you can while still winning, P4 in St. Pete and P6 here) in his wins. Whereas, Sato has had back-to-back P1 Race Scores.

- Drivers that I expect to improve during "oval season": Kanaan, Carpenter, Franchitti. Now, I think Sato and Andretti will have very good oval seasons as well.

- That said, at this point in the season (basically 20% of the way home) I would take Dixon, Castroneves, and Andretti to bring home this little experiment and give away the field. That gives away the current leader, Takuma Sato. I just can't trust Sato to close. He's starting to prove that he can finish races, but I just can't buy in yet.

Well, that's all I've got without actually watching the race.

See you on Friday,

-- Guido

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